------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON FEBRUARY 2020 HAS MADE Wfeb. = 0.2 0.4(n) THAT GIVES FOR 127 MONTH (2019, AUGUST) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*aug = 2.1 3.5 - new system W*jul = 2.1 3.5 - new system On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax =82; (116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2020; OTHER SC FORECAST: SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to 35% (last month) - December 2019; CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard curves, due to K. Denkmayr - Already passed a minimum, which is not true.; NOAA - December 2019. The last two, in my opinion, are inadequate, since such short, low SCs were not observed. The observed magnetic structures corresponding SC 25 (>43 on October 2019) can be seen http://www.solen.info/solar/cycle25_spots.html Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for FEBRUARY 2020 (66 observatories) : 1.. 11í 6.. 0 11.. 0 16.. 0 21.. 0 26.. 0 2.. 0 7.. 0 12.. 0 17.. 0 22.. 0 27.. 0 3.. 0 8.. 0 13.. 0 18.. 0 23.. 0 28.. 0 4.. 0 9.. 0 14.. 0 19.. 0 24.. 0 29.. 0 5.. 0 10.. 0 15.. 0 20.. 0 25.. 0 Minimum : 0 on 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON FEBRUARY 2020, AND SMOOTHES ON 2019, AUGUST F10.7feb. = 71.0 F*10.7aug= 69.8 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON FEBRUARY 2020, AND SMOOT- HES ON 2019, AUGUST Ap feb. = 6 Ap*aug =6.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 4.02 - 1.03.2020, Forecast on 2 - 09.03.2020, Carrington Rotation 2227, 2228 (02,72.02; 01,03.03.2020) Earth out of ecliptic (-4.7 - -5.0) deg. (S29 - N21 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW WITH A SPOTLESS VISIBLE DISK (44 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE 2020). ESTIMA- TED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=0(Wn=0). NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL -3 SOLAR FLARE (CLASS A), AND THREE CORONAL MASS EJECTION (27, 29.02) HAVE BEEN OBSER- VED FOR THE PERIOD. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 26.02/20 UT THE IMF SECTOR SIGN WAS "+". NEXT WEEK THE BEHAVIOR OF THE SECTOR STRUCTURE SIGN WILL NOT CHANGE. NEXT IMF SECTOR BOUNDER THE EARTH WILL PASS AT 2.03 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FEBRUARY 24 25 26 27 28 29 01 MARCH Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 F10.7 070 071 070 071 071 070 069 èbcg 2 3.1E+7 3.8å+7 5.9E+7 2.0E+7 3.2E+7 5.9E+6 8.5å+6 GOES Ie>2 1568 956 1141 1141 1195 684 342 pfu Ap 4 3 4 4 6 11 8 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 4 3 5 6 8 12 9 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN AT 20.02/1625 UT AND OBSERVED 24, 26-28.02. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MID-LATITUDES REMAINED QUITE AND UNSET- TLED ALL DAYS. NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDI- TION WILL OBSERVED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov