------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON MARCH 2020 HAS MADE Wmar. = 0.9 1.5(n) THAT GIVES FOR 128 MONTH (2019, SEPTEMBER) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*sep. = 1.9 3.5 - new system W*aug. = 2.1 3.1 - new system ^- premiliminary, no data from Boulder center. On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax =82; (116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2020; OTHER SC FORECAST: SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to 35% (last month) - December 2019; CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard curves, due to K. Denkmayr - Already passed a minimum, which is not true.; NOAA - December 2019. The last two, in my opinion, are inadequate, since such short, low SCs were not observed. The observed magnetic structures corresponding SC 25 (>43 on October 2019) can be seen http://www.solen.info/solar/cycle25_spots.html Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for MARCH 2020 (68 observatories) : 1.. 0 6.. 0 11.. 0 16.. 0 21.. 0 26.. 0 31.. 12 2.. 0 7.. 0 12.. 0 17.. 0 22.. 0 27.. 0 3.. 0 8.. 15í 13.. 0 18.. 3 23.. 0 28.. 0 4.. 0 9.. 12 14.. 0 19.. 0 24.. 0 29.. 0 5.. 0 10.. 0 15.. 0 20.. 0 25.. 0 30.. 4 Minimum : 0 on 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON MARCH 2020, AND SMOOTHES ON 2019, SEPTEMBER F10.7mar. = 69.5 F*10.7sep.= 69.7 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON MARCH 2020, AND SMOOT- HES ON 2019, SEPTEMBER Ap mar. = 5.6 Ap*sep. = 6.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 06 - 12.04.2020, Forecast on 13 - 20.04.2020, Carrington Rotations 2229 (28,37.03.2020) Earth out of ecliptic (-6.0 - -5.7) deg. (S35 - N20 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. SPOT- LESS VISIBLE DISK HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALL PERIOD (77 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE 2020). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VA- LUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYS- TEM (old) FOR PERIOD W = 0 (Wn= 0). NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL, BUT 62 SOLAR FLARE OF B AND A CLASSES 30.03 - 10.04, ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS (7.04) AND TWO CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (8, 12.04) WAS OBSERVED OF THE PERIOD. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 07.04 >1624 >0526 N56W13L255 7 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH*- N20E05L207 S13E20L222 S45W15L178 S05W15L187 11.5 10-11.04 1 SDO... * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 12.03/20 UT THE IMF SECTOR SIGN WAS "-". NEXT WEEK THE BEHAVIOR OF THE SECTOR STRUCTURE SIGN WILL NOT CHANGE. THE REAL PROVISION OF THE NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE, MAY BE BECAUSE OF THE CON- DITIONS OF A DEEP MINIMUM (TOPIC FOR STUDY!!!). ----------------------------------------------------------------------- APRIL 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 APRIL Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 F10.7 070 070 070 070 069 071 071 èbcg A1.0 2 1.2E+7 1.8å+7 1.7E+6 2.0E+6 3.8E+6 2.2E+6 1.1å+6 GOES Ie>2 404 606 371 183 249 231 131 pfu Ap 2 4 13 5 5 7 7 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 3 4 14 4 6 8 7 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS POSSIBLE EXPECTED AFTER 15.04. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED QUITE AND UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDI- TION WILL OBSERVED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov