Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 04 - 10.05.2020, Forecast on 11 - 18.05.2020, Carrington Rotations 2230 (24,65.04.2020) Earth out of ecliptic (-4.4 - -4.1) deg. (S35 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW LEVEL. SPOTLESS VISIBLE DISK HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THE PERIOD (10 SPOT- LESS DAYS IN THE 2020). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYS- TEM (old) FOR PERIOD W = 0 (Wn= 0). NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL, BUT 6 SOLAR FLARE OF "A" CLASS, AND 2 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (4 AND 9.05) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OF THE PERIOD. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 7.05/11 - 10.05/20 UT THE IMF SECTOR SIGN WAS "+". THE BEHAVIOR OF THE SECTOR STRUCTURE WILL NOT CHANGE. THE REAL PROVISION OF NEXT SEC- TOR BOUNDARY IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE, MAY BE BECAUSE OF A DEEP MINIMUM CON- DITIONS (TOPIC FOR STUDY!!!). ------------------------------------------------------------------ MAY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 MAY Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 F10.7 069 069 070 069 069 071 068 èbcg >A1.0 2 1.9E+6 1.9å+6 2.4E+6 2.7E+6 1.5E+6 1.5E+6 1.7å+6 GOES Ie>2 164 249 166 179 191 178 169 pfu Ap 7 6 3 2 6 5 5 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 8 5 3 4 5 5 5 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OB- OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO QUITE. NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDI- TION WILL OBSERVED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov