Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 11 - 17.05.2020, Forecast on 18 - 25.05.2020, Carrington Rotations 2230, 2231 (24,65.04; 21,88.05.2020) Earth out of ecliptic (-4.0 - -3.7) deg. (S31 - N27 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW LEVEL. SPOTLESS VISIBLE DISK HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THE PERIOD (107 SPOT- LESS DAYS IN THE 2020). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYS- TEM (old) FOR PERIOD W = 0 (Wn= 0). NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL. HOWEVER 18.05 TWO ACTIVE REGIONS FROM E-LIMB APPEARS ON THE VI- SIBLE SOLAR DISC, IN WHICH AT THE PAST ROTATION, NUMEROUS FLA- RES "A" AND "B" X-RAY CLASSES WAS OBSERVED. LIKELY WEEKLY AVE- RAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL, BUT 18 SOLAR FLARE OF "A" CLASS FROM NEW ACTIVE REGIONS, AND 1 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (12.05) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT THE PERIOD. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 7.05/11 - 10.05/20 UT THE IMF SECTOR SIGN WAS "+". THE BEHAVIOR OF THE SECTOR STRUCTURE WILL NOT CHANGE. THE REAL PROVISION OF NEXT SEC- TOR BOUNDARY IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE, MAY BE BECAUSE OF A DEEP MINIMUM CON- DITIONS (TOPIC FOR STUDY!!!). ------------------------------------------------------------------ MAY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 MAY Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 F10.7 066 069 069 068 068 069 070 èbcg >A1.0 2 1.1E+6 1.3å+6 1.5E+6 1.3E+6 1.3E+6 1.2E+6 1.3å+6 GOES Ie>2 177 161 145 136 176 203 194 pfu Ap 5 4 4 3 4 4 3 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 5 5 4 3 3 4 3 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OB- OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED QUITE. NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDI- TION WILL OBSERVED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov