------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON MAY 2020 HAS MADE Wmay = 0.12 0.2(n) THAT GIVES FOR 130 MONTH (2019, NOVEMBER) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*nov. = 1.3 2.1 - new system W*oct. = 1.6 2.6 - new system On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax =81.9; (116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2020; OTHER SC FORECAST: SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to 35% (last month) - February 2020; NOAA - December 2019. The last two, in my opinion, are inadequate, since such short, low SCs were not observed. The observed magnetic structures corresponding SC 25 (>43 on October 2019) can be seen http://www.solen.info/solar/cycle25_spots.html Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for MAY 2020 (63 observatories): 1.. 4 6.. 0 11.. 0 16.. 0 21.. 0 26.. 0 31.. 2 2.. 0 7.. 0 12.. 0 17.. 0 22.. 0 27.. 0 3.. 0 8.. 0 13.. 0 18.. 0 23.. 0 28.. 0 4.. 0 9.. 0 14.. 0 19.. 0 24.. 0 29.. 0 5.. 0 10.. 0 15.. 0 20.. 0 25.. 0 30.. 0 Minimum : 0 on 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON MAY 2020, AND SMOOTHED ON 2019, NOVEMBER F10.7may = 69.5 F*10.7nov.= 69.5 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON APRIL 2020, AND SMOOT- HED ON 2019, OCTOBER Ap may = 5.3 Ap*nov. =6.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 01 - 07.06.2020, Forecast on 08 - 15.06.2020, Carrington Rotation 2231 (21,88.05.2020) Earth out of ecliptic (-2.8 - -2.4) deg. (S27 - N23 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY REMAINED ON VERY LOW LEVEL. SPOT- LESS VISIBLE DISK HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT 2.06 ONLY (122 SPOT- LESS DAYS IN THE 2020). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYS- TEM (old) FOR PERIOD W= 7+3/-7 (Wn= 11+5/-11). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 02.06 HAS APPEARANCE AN ACTIVE REGION, IN WHICH 3. 06 APPEARANCE SUNSPOTS. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MIDDLE (29.05) AND VERY LOW LEVEL. 51 SOLAR FLARE OF VERY LOW X-RAY CLASSES (B, A), AND 8 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (1.06) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT THE PERIOD. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 7.06/19 UT, THE EARTH IS IN THE "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING THE NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN EX- PECT 10.06 BUT THE REAL PREDICTION OF NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY IS NOT IMPO- SSIBLE, MAY BE BECAUSE OF A DEEP MINIMUM CONDITIONS (TOPIC FOR STUDY!!!). ------------------------------------------------------------------ JUNE 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 JUNE Wus 011 000 012 012 013 015 016 F10.7 069 070 070 070 071 072 073 èbcg A1.7 A4.5 A2.6 A2.3 A3.6 A4.1 A3.5 GOES Sp 000 000 070 100 130 110 100 msh N IMF - - - - - - -/+ DSCOVR Å>2 1.5E+6 1.4å+6 1.4E+6 1.5E+6 1.7E+6 1.4E+6 1.1å+6 GOES Ie>2 176 191 152 146 þþþ 191 162 pfu Ap 7 7 3 4 3 3 9 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 7 7 6 4 4 4 8 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OB- OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED QUITE AND UNSETTLED ALL PERIOD. NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDI- TION WILL OBSERVED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov