------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JULY 2020 HAS MADE Wjul. = 3.8 6.3(n) THAT GIVES FOR 132 MONTH (2020, JANUARY) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*jan. = 1.3 2.2 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ W*dec. = 1.14 1.9 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax =82; (116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2020; OTHER SC FORECAST: SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to 35% (last month) - February 2020; NOAA - December 2019. The last two, in my opinion, are inadequate, since such short, low SCs were not observed. The observed magnetic structures corresponding SC 25 (>43 on October 2019) can be seen http://www.solen.info/solar/cycle25_spots.html Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for July 2020 (72 obser- vatories): 1.. 5 6.. 5 11.. 0 16.. 0 21.. 6 26.. 12 31.. 22í 2.. 0 7.. 8 12.. 0 17.. 0 22.. 11 27.. 11 3.. 0 8.. 0 13.. 0 18.. 0 23.. 11 28.. 22í 4.. 7 9.. 0 14.. 0 19.. 0 24.. 11 29.. 22í 5.. 5 10.. 0 15.. 3 20.. 0 25.. 11 30.. 22í Minimum : 0 on 2, 3, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON JULY 2020, AND SMOOTHES ON 2020, JANUARY F10.7 july = 69.5 F*10.7jan.= xxx THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON JULY 2020, AND SMOOT- HES ON 2020, JANUARY Ap july = 4.3 Ap*jan. = xxx ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 27.07 - 02.08.2020, Forecast on 03 - 10.08.2020, Carrington Rotation 2233 (15.28.07.2020) Earth out of ecliptic (2.3 - 2.7) deg. (S25 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY REMAINED ON VERY LOW LEVEL. ESTI- MATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W = 12+2/-5 (Wn = 21+2/-10). ON VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 3 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=020+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT VERY LOW LEVEL. 6 SOLAR FLARE OF VERY LOW X-RAY CLASS "B", 38 - CLASS "A" AND 6 CORONAL MASS EJECTION (29 -31.07) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 29.07/1410 UT, THE EARTH IS IN THE "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANE- TARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING THE NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN EXPECT 19-20.08. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- éàìø 27 28 29 30 31 01 02 éàìø Wus 011 022 022 022 023 022 022 F10.7 071 072 073 073 072 072 073 èbcg A3.2 A3.1 A2.4 A2.5 A2.8 A3.3 A3.4 GOES Sp 070 050 085 110 070 060 060 msh N 1 1 IMF - - - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 8.9E+6 5.1å+6 6.1E+6 2.4E+6 2.6E+6 3.7E+6 2.3å+6 GOES Ie>2 423 323 268 230 169 226 197 pfu Ap 4 5 5 4 4 3 9 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 3 6 5 6 5 4 11 nô IZMIRAN ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OB- OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED QUITE AND UNSETTLED ALL PERIOD. NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDI- TION WILL OBSERVED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov