Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 09 - 15.11.2020, Forecast on 16 - 23.11.2020, Carrington Rotation 2237(1,31.11.2020) Earth out of ecliptic (4.5 - 4.1) deg. (S25 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W= 12+ 4/-12 (Wn= 20+7/-20). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC 2 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL. A LARGE SUNSPOT GROUP APPEARED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SUN IN SOUTH HEMISPHERE, WHICH WILL GO TO THE EASTERN LIMB ~ 23.09. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W = 010+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW AND VERY LOW LEVEL. 4 SOLAR FLARE OF LOW X-RAY CLASS CLASS "C", 32-CLASS "B", 1 SOLAR FILAMENT EJEC- TION AND 3 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (11, 12.11) HAVE BEEN OBSER- VED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 11.11 >2345 >1603 S46W19L196 6 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Sp/craft * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 5.11/1350 UT, THE EARTH IS IN THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETA- RY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING THE NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN BE EXPECT 14.11. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NOVEMBER 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 NOVEMBER Wus 027 027 025 027 024 011 000 F10.7 090 087 088 085 082 080 079 èbcg ÷1.6 ÷1.7 ÷1.5 ÷1.2 á9.3 á9.6 á9.5 GOES Sp 230 230 120 110 100 050 000 msh N IMF - - - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 3.4E+7 3.8å+7 4.8E+7 2.6E+6 2.5E+6 5.1E+6 4.4å+6 GOES Ie>2 820 973 2248 535 221 302 286 pfu Ap 1 1 4 3 3 3 4 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 1 1 6 4 3 3 2 nô IZMIRAN ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN 11.11/1522 AND OBSERVED 11.11 ONLY. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED. ALL DAYS QUITE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CON- DITION WILL BE OBSERVED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov