------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON NOVEMBER 2020 HAS MADE Wnov. = 20.4 34.0(n) THAT GIVES FOR 4 MONTH (2020, MAY) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*may = 3.4 5.6 - in new system W*apr. = 2.2 3.6 - in new system On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE MAXIMUM - III 2024, - Wmax =90-100; (150n) THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031; Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for November (69 observatories): 1.. 3 6.. 41 11.. 31 16.. 0m 21.. 25 26.. 57 2.. 8 7.. 38 12.. 30 17.. 12 22.. 37 27.. 75 3.. 16 8.. 44 13.. 25 18.. 12 23.. 48 28.. 84 4.. 24 9.. 28 14.. 22 19.. 12 24.. 42 29.. 94í 5.. 31 10.. 27 15.. 6 20.. 12 25.. 51 30.. 85 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON NOVEMBER 2020, AND SMOOTHES ON 2020,MAY 2020 F10.7nov. = 90.1 F*10.7may= 70.5 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON NOVEMBER 2020, AND SMOOTHES ON 2020, MAY 2020 Ap nov. = 5.0 Ap*may = xxx --------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 30.11 - 06.12.2020, Forecast on 07 - 13.12.2020, Carrington Rotation 2238(25,94.12.2020) Earth out of ecliptic (2.6 - 2.1) deg. (S29 - N31 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON MIDDLE AND LOW LEVEL. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=25+ 12/-10 (Wn=42+20/-17). ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN ONE LARGE AND FOUR MINOR SUNSPOT GROUPS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS LOW AND VERY LOW LE- VELS. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=020+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT MIDDLE, LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. 9 SOLAR FLARE OF LOW X-RAY CLASS "C", 35 -CLASS "B", AND 8 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (30.11, 1, 4, 6.12) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 29.11 1242 1247 1327 S23 E120L253 M4.4 ? 12790 II/IV CME DSF to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Sp/craft CH - N40W00L268 N35E15L253 N25E03L265 N38W05L293 0.8% 8.12 1 SOHO... CH - N12E12L256 N10E15L253 S05E07L261 S02E07L262 1.2% 9.12 1 SOHO. * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 05.12/1215 UT, THE EARTH IS IN THE "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETA- RY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING THE NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN BE EXPECT 07.12. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NOVEVBER 30 01 02 03 04 05 06 NOVEMBER Wus 062 046 041 040 038 042 025 F10.7 109 104 105 103 096 100 091 èbcg ÷3.5 ÷3.3 ÷3.1 ÷3.0 ÷2.4 ÷2.7 ÷2.0 GOES Sp 710 620 530 680 680 440 080 msh N 1 1 IMF +/- - - - - -/+ + DSCOVR Å>2 2.4E+7 2.6å+7 5.0E+7 3.7E+7 2.5E+7 2.9E+7 2.7å+7 GOES Ie>2 786 594 1529 1127 553 768 839 pfu Ap 8 4 7 7 8 5 6 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 7 4 9 8 6 4 6 nô IZMIRAN ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN 02.12 AND OBSERVED 2-3.12. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED. ALL DAYS THERE ARE UNSETTLED AND QUITE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CON- DITION WILL BE OBSERVED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov