Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 15 - 21.02.2021, Forecast on 22 - 29.02.2021, Carrington Rotation 2240, 2241 (22,27.01; 18,62.02.2021) Earth out of ecliptic (-4.4 - -4.8) deg. (S33 - N29 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON VERY LOW LEVEL, SOLAR DISC WAS SPOTLESS TO 18.02 (31 DAYS IN CURRENT YEAR). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUM- BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=4+3/-4 (Wn= 7+5/-7). ON VISIBLE SOLAR DISC THERE ARE TWO SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON VERY LOW LEVEL. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATI- ONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW LEVEL. 7 SOLAR FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS "B", 21-CLASS "A", ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTA (20.02) AND 11 CO- RONAL MASS EJECTIONS (15-17, 19-21.02) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 20.02 ~1330 Så-Ë×ÁÄÒÁÎÔ >10 CME/1400 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Sp/craft óî* + N40L056 N25L046 N18L056 N25L066 <7 16.02 8 - SOHO... CH - S08L020 S25L035 S40L035 S10L007 4 20-21.02 3 A SOHO... * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 11.02/0730 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLA- NETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN BE EXPECT 1.03. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FEBRUARY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 FEBRUARY Wus 000 000 000 012 012 012 011 F10.7 070 071 072 071 073 076 075 èbcg A1.3 A1.0 A2.0 á3.0 á2.5 A2.6 >A1.0 GOES Sp 000 000 000 015 030 010 010 msh N IMF - - - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 3.1E+6 1.4å+6 1.7E+6 1.9E+7 1.5E+6 1.1å+7 1.9E+8 GOES Ie>2 314 156 189 158 202 858 6701 pfu Ap 5 15 8 5 17 20 20 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 8 8 8 4 21 26 15 nô IZMIRAN ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN 21.02/0535 AND OBSERVED 21.02. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED 22-29.02. MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams=27, dur.=12 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CEN- TER IN BULDER DATA AND (G1, Ams= 47, duration= 12 hours) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA MARKED 19.02 DUE EARTH's PASSAGE OF A HIGH SPEED STREAM DOUBLE CORONAL HOLE "-" POLARITY OF THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. AND ALREADY 20-21.02 REGISTERED THE NEXT SMALL MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams=20, dur.=24 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOLDER AND (G1, Ams= 38, dur.=12 h.) ON DATA IZMIRAN. IN THE OTHER DAYS, THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET. IN THE NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLE IS EXPECTED A QUITE AND UNSETT- LED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION. HOWEVER, on 24-25.02 it is POSSIBLE TO INCREASE THE DISTURBATION OF THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION TO THE "AC- TIVE" LEVEL AND HIGHER DUE TO THE SLIDING EFFECT OF THE CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM THE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTA 20.02. THE PROBABILI- TY OF A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM IS NO MORE 10%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov