Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 08 - 14.03.2021, Forecast on 15 - 22.03.2021, Carrington Rotation 2241, 2242 (18,62.02; 17,94.03.2021) Earth out of ecliptic (-5.4 - -5.9) deg. (S34 - N26 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON VERY LOW LEVEL. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUM- BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=10+4/-3 (Wn= 17+7/-6). ON VISIBLE SOLAR DISC THERE ARE 2 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON VERY LOW LEVEL. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATI- ONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=020+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW LEVEL. 1 SOLAR FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS "C", 7-CLASS "B", 1 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 1 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (8.03) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 11.03 >0026 >1426 S38E48L132 7 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Sp/craft CH + N45L058 N35L063 N28L050 N25L046 ~3% 14.03 3 - SDO, SOHO... * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 12.03/0550 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLA- NETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN BE EXPECT 25.03. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- MARCH 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 íáòô Wus 012 023 011 023 015 012 024 F10.7 080 084 079 078 077 081 078 èbcg A5.5 A6.3 A5.1 á3.6 á2.7 A2.1 A2.9 GOES Sp 020 010 020 060 030 010 030 msh N 1 1 IMF + + + + +/- - - DSCOVR Å>2 5.9E+7 5.9å+7 6.4E+7 7.5E+7 3.2E+7 1.8å+6 5.5E+7 GOES Ie>2 1625 1413 1458 1701 2147 266 2774 pfu Ap 6 3 2 4 12 17 25 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc no data 11 14 20 nô IZMIRAN ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN 3.03/0750 AND OBSERVED 3 - 12.03. NEXT FLUX BEGAN 14.03/1520 UT AND OBSERVED 14.03 NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED 15-22.03. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED QUIET ALL THE PERIOD UNTIL 12. 03. MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=32, dur.=15 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA, AS A CONSEQUENCE OF HIGH-SPEED STREAM PAS- SAGE FROM NORTHERN CORONAL HOLE "+" POLARITY. ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA, THE MAGNETIC DICTURBANCE EXPLAINED IN TWO SUBSTORMS OF INTEN- SITY "G0" DURATION 6 and 9 h. IN THE NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLE IS EXPECTED A QUITE AND UNSET- TLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov