------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON APRIL 2021 HAS MADE Wmar. = 14.7 24.5(n-in new system) THAT GIVES FOR 10 MONTH (2020, OCTOBER) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*oct. = 7.1 11.9 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ W*sep. = 6.2 10.3 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n) MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n) THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031; Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for February 2021 (èè observatories): NO DATA on http://sidc.oma.be/ [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON APRIL 2021, AND SMOOTHES ON 2020, OCTOBER F10.7apr. = 74.5 F*10.7oct.= 75.2 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON APRIL 2021, AND SMOOTHES ON 2021, OCTOBER 2020 Ap apr.= 8.6 Ap*oct. = xxx --------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 26.4 - 02.05.2021, Forecast on 03 - 10.05.2021, Carrington Rotation 2243 (11,47.05.2021) Earth out of ecliptic (-5.0 - -4.6) deg. (S35 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON LOW LEVEL AND 02.05 THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS (42 DAYS AT 2021). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN- TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=24+14/-24 (Wn=34+30/-34). THREE SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS WERE OBSERVED ON THE SOLAR VISIBLE DISK WICH FORMED A COMPLEX OF ACTIVE REGIONS. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON VERY LOW LEVEL. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATI- ONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=010+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW LEVELS. ONE SOLAR FLARE "ó" OF X-RAY CLASS, 37-CLASS "B", TWO SOLAR FILAMENT ERUPTIONS AND 8 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (26, 29-30.04, 2.05) WAS OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 19.04 2319 2342 2359 S24E23L264 M1.1 1.3å-2 12816 II/IV óíå DSF to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 26.04 1635 S55W14L174 >10 29.04 1613 N55E65L214 >15 CME/ -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Sp/craft CH* + N10L230 S05L235 S12L225 N09L219 ~5% 29.04 >5 - SOHO,SDO... * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 29.04/1325 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLA- NETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN BE EXPECT 8.05. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- APRIL 26 27 28 29 30 01 02 íáê Wus 064 047 042 037 035 011 000 F10.7 080 079 078 077 073 072 072 èbcg á7.1 á7.4 á6.6 á5.6 á4.5 á3.1 A3.0 GOES Sp 220 140 070 070 070 010 000 msh N IMF - - - -/+ + + + DSCOVR Å>2 2.9E+6 1.4å+8 4.1E+7 4.6E+7 4.3E+7 8.9å+6 2.1E+6 GOES Ie>2 351 541 1063 1076 1836 385 262 pfu Ap 14 8 3 6 6 5 10 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 13 6 2 4 7 6 11 nô IZMIRAN ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV RECURRENT ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN 30.04/1530 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 28-30.04. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION VARY FROM UNSETTLTD TO QUITE. IN THE NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLE IS EXPECTED A QUITE AND UNSET- TLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov