------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON MAY 2021 HAS MADE Wmay. = 14.7 24.5(in new system) THAT GIVES FOR 11 MONTH (2020, NOVEMBER) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*nov. = 8.2 13.6 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ W*oct. = 7.1 11.9 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n) MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n) THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031; Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for May 2021 (71 observatories): 1.. 10 6.. 0 11.. 32 16.. 13 21.. 14 26.. 41 31.. 29 2.. 0 7.. 10 12.. 33 17.. 14 22.. 19 27.. 42í 3.. 0 8.. 16 13.. 30 18.. 28 23.. 27 28.. 30 4.. 0 9.. 20 14.. 26 19.. 27 24.. 31 29.. 14 5.. 0 10.. 33 15.. 28 20.. 20 25.. 41 30.. 28 Minimum : 0 on 2 - 6.05 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON MAY 2021, AND SMOOTHES ON 2020, NOVEMBER F10.7may = 75.6 F*10.7nov.= 75.7 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON MAY 2021, AND SMOOTHES ON 2021, NOVEMBER 2020 Ap may= 6.5 Ap*oct. = xxx --------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 31.05 - 06.06.2021, Forecast on 07 - 14.06.2021, Carrington Rotation 2244, 2245 (11,48.05; 07,69.06.2021) Earth out of ecliptic (-2.5 - -2.0) deg. (S32 - N32 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON LOW LEVEL. THE ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUM- BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=18+7/-6 (Wn = 30+12/-10). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 3 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS WERE OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON VERY LOW AND LOW LEVEL. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN- TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=020+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW LEVELS. 1 SOLAR FLARE OF X-RAY "C" CLASS, 54 -"B" AND 6 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (2-3, 5-6.06) WAS OBSERVED AT THE PERIOD. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW AND VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Sp/craft * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 2.06/2220 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANE- TARY MAGNETIC FIELD. ON PERIOD 1/04-2/2220 UT THE SIGN OF THE SECTOR WAS "-". FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN BE EXPECT 09.06. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- MAY 31 01 02 03 04 05 06 éàîø Wus 031 020 030 028 030 030 042 F10.7 082 075 076 076 077 074 077 èbcg á6.7 á5.5 ÷5.4 á5.3 á6.6 á4.8 á5.8 GOES Sp 120 100 080 080 070 150 200 msh N 1 1 IMF - -/+ +/- - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 2.3å+6 2.5E+6 2.3å+6 1.8E+6 1.3E+6 1.3E+6 1.1å+6 GOES Ie>2 176 158 211 157 143 145 151 pfu Ap 3 3 5 6 5 4 5 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 3 6 7 5 4 4 5 nô IZMIRAN ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV RECURRENT ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED. IN THE NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLE IS EXPECTED A QUITE AND UN- SETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov