Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 14 - 20.06.2021, Forecast on 21 - 28.06.2021, Carrington Rotation 2245 (07,69.06.2021) Earth out of ecliptic (-1.2 - -0.6) deg. (S32 - N32 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON LOW LEVEL. THE ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUM- BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 8+6/-1 (Wn=14+10/-3). THERE WERE 2 SMALL QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK OBSERVED SIMULTANEOUSLY. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON LOW LEVEL. WEEKLY AVE- RAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=020+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW LEVELS. 6 SOLAR FLARE OF X-RAY "B" CLASS, 7 -"A", THREE EJECTA OF SOLAR FILAMENTS AND 8 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (14, 15, 17, 18, 20.0) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 16.06 0904 1037 S32E41L278 15 16.06 1257 1317 S31W19L208 13 17.06 0739 0814 N10E22L203 8 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW AND VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Sp/craft CH* - N10L140 N00L150 S05WL150 N05L135 <2% 17.06 1(5) 1 SDO ... A section of a loose CD with a low magnetic field, geoeffectiveness: substorm on 15.06 and a flux of relativistic electrons on 17-26.09; * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 15.06/00 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN BE EXPECT 09.06. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- JUNE 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 éàîø Wus 011 011 011 012 024 015 013 F10.7 077 076 076 075 077 077 076 èbcg á5.2 á3.9 á3.6 á3.9 á3.7 á3.7 á4.5 GOES Sp 100 060 130 130 130 120 090 msh N 1 IMF + +/- - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 1.5å+6 1.3E+6 2.6å+7 2.0E+8 1.6E+8 2.0E+8 2.4å+6 GOES Ie>2 165 255 926 4862 4737 4223 4546 pfu Ap 4 17 14 7 7 4 4 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 6 16 13 6 7 3 4 nô IZMIRAN ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV RECURRENT ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 17/0835 UT AND OBSERVED 17-20.06. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED ALL DAYS EXCEPT 15.09 WHEN ON MIDDLE LATITUDES WAS REGISTERED SUBSTORM G1 INTENCITY AND 9 h DURATION. IN THE NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLE IS EXPECTED A QUITE AND UN- SETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov