Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 19 - 25.07.2021, Forecast on 26.07 - 02.08.2021, Carrington Rotation 2246; 2247 (04,88.07; 1,1.08.2021) Earth out of ecliptic (2.0 - 2.4) deg. (S30 - N32 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS ON LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. THE ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=27+25 /-13 (Wn= 45+41/-21). 6 SMALL QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS ON THE VISIB- LE SOLAR DISK, 4 ON SOUTH AND 2 ON NORTH HEMISPHERE HAS BEEN OB- SERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON LOW LEVEL. WEEKLY AVERA- GE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=020+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. 7 SOLAR FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS "ó", 41- "B", TWO SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTA AND 13 CORO- NAL MASS EJECTIONS (19-25.07) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 20.07 1600-1630 N26E65L219 >5 B5 óíå/1636 25.07 ~0450 >0513 N20W26L057 >5 B2.5 12846 CME/0600 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW, LOW AND, POS- SIBLE, MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH + Pn N14L128 N12L126 N32L100 6.4% 27.07 2 - SDO, SOHO... * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 19.07/06 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN BE EXPECT 1.08. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- JULY 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 JULY Wus 045 059 086 077 046 035 024 F10.7 083 087 094 089 087 084 082 èbcg B1.6 B2.0 B2.2 B2.0 B1.5 B1.7 ÷1.0 GOES Sp 130 250 260 290 080 040 030 msh N 1 1 2 IMF -/+ + + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 2.7å+6 3.2E+6 3.1å+6 3.2E+6 4.3E+6 5.8E+6 9.2å+6 GOES Ie>2 403 267 274 274 241 309 310 pfu Ap 7 10 6 11 4 4 3 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 10 14 11 8 4 4 3 nô IZMIRAN ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV RECURRENT ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NO OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED - NO GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED. THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST PROBABLE A QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION ALL DAYS. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov