Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 09 - 15.08.2021, Forecast on 16 - 23.08.2021 Carrington Rotation 2247 (1,1.08.2021) Earth out of ecliptic (3.4 - 3.8) deg. (S30 - N32 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL. THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS 9-10, 13.09 (56 DAYS AT 2021). THE ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=9+19/-9 (Wn= 15+32/ -15). 4 SMALL QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK, 1 ON SOUTH AND 2 ON NORTH HEMISPHERE HAS BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON VERY LOW AND LOW LEVEL. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN- TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=020+10/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW AND VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. 1 FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS "C", 12 - CLASS "B", 25 - CLASS "A" AND 13 CORO- NAL MASS EJECTIONS (09, 12, 14-15.08) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 15.07 ~05 ~07 NE-back side >15 ? ? CME/~09 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW, LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 13.08/06 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETA- RY MAGNETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN BE EXPECT 27.08. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AUGUST 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 á÷çõóô Wus 000 000 022 011 000 043 023 F10.7 073 073 074 074 073 073 075 èbcg á4.8 á3.7 á4.4 á4.6 á3.7 A3.8 A3.5 GOES Sp 000 000 020 010 000 040 020 msh N 2 1 1 IMF +/- - - - -/+ + + DSCOVR Å>2 1.9å+6 1.6å+6 1.5å+6 1.8E+6 1.7E+6 2.2E+6 1.7å+6 GOES Ie>2 352 142 209 158 165 177 179 pfu Ap 5 7 6 4 6 5 10 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 4 7 6 6 6 4 9 nô IZMIRAN ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV RECURRENT ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NO OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED - NO GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET IN THE PERIOD. THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST PROBABLE A QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION ALL DAYS. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov