Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 16 - 22.08.2021, Forecast on 23 - 30.08.2021 Carrington Rotation 2247, 2248 (1,1.08, 28,33.08.2021) Earth out of ecliptic (3.9 - 4.3) deg. (S30 - N32 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW AND LOW LE- VELS. THE ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 11+4/-3 (Wn= 18+7/-5). 3 SMALL QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK, ALL ON NORTH HEMISPHERE HAS BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON VERY LOW AND LOW LEVEL. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN- TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=020+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW AND VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. 9 FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS "C", 55 -CLASS "B", TWO SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 6 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (16-22.08) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 17.08 <1926 >1135 S30E85L221 >15 A9.1 CME/1112 22.08 0300 S71E14L091 >25 CME/0336 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 13.08/06 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETA- RY MAGNETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN BE EXPECT 27.08. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AUGUST 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 á÷çõóô Wus 014 013 016 025 014 025 016 F10.7 077 073 075 075 078 077 077 èbcg á4.8 á3.9 á3.7 á3.6 B1.1 B1.1 ÷1.2 GOES Sp 030 010 020 040 010 090 140 msh N 1 1 IMF + + + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 5.6å+6 1.7å+7 1.6å+7 1.6E+7 1.4E+6 1.0E+6 1.3å+6 GOES Ie>2 438 618 490 448 145 154 167 pfu Ap 7 5 6 5 5 4 3 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 8 6 6 4 8 4 3 nô IZMIRAN ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV RECURRENT ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NO OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED - NO GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED IN THE PERIOD. THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST PROBABLE A QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION ALL DAYS. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov