25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MINIMUM THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON OCTOBER 2021 HAS MADE Woct. = 22.9 38.1(in new system) THAT GIVES FOR 16 MONTH (2021, APRIL) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*oct. = 14.9 24.9 - in new system W*mar. = 13.1 21.8 - in new system On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n) MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n) THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031; Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for OCTOBER 2021 (70 observatories): 1.. 36 6.. 26 11.. 30 16.. 11 21.. 18 26.. 92 31.. 68 2.. 34 7.. 16 12.. 18 17.. 0m 22.. 37 27..104M 3.. 26 8.. 19 13.. 20 18.. 18 23.. 50 28..100 4.. 35 9.. 24 14.. 21 19.. 13 24.. 41 29.. 85 5.. 31 10.. 39 15.. 12 20.. 12 25.. 68 30.. 78 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON OCTOBER 2021, AND SMOOTHES ON 2021, APRIL F10.7oct. = 99.05 F*10.7apr.= 80.3 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON OCTOBER 2021, AND SMOOTHES ON 2021, APRIL Ap oct.= 7.3 Ap*apr. = xxx --------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 01 - 07.11.2021, Forecast on 08 - 15.11.2021 Carrington Rotations 2250 (21,88.10.2021) Earth out of ecliptic (-2.5 - -2.9) deg. (S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS ON MIDDLE AND LOW LE- VELS. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 52+4/-6 (Wn= 86+10/-10). ON VISIBLE SOLAR DISK AT THE SAME TIME UP TO THREE SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS, 2 IN NORTHERN HEMISPHE- RE HAS BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN- TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=050+50/-30. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. TWO FLARE X-RAY CLASS "M", 11 FLARES CLASS "C", 61 - CLASS "B", FIVE SO- LAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 23 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (1-6.11), THREE WHICH WAS TYPE II AND ONE - IV, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 01.11 0057 0145 0210 S29W45L280 M1.5/1F 3.2E-02 12887 II/1IV/2 óíå 02.11 0120 0301 0350 S26W69L280 M1.7/1F 7.5E-02 12887 óíå DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 01.11 0801 0840 S31W66 8 12887 01.11 1738 1744 S34W20 14 02.11 1103 1201 S32W56 8 12887 04.11 0512 0536 S60E10L 12 06.11 1118 N25W10L125 ? CME/1400 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 5.10/04 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN BE EXPECT 13.11. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NOVEMBER 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 NOVEMBER Wus 053 042 041 028 040 041 028 F10.7 098 097 089 094 093 082 088 èbcg B1.9 ÷3.9 ÷1.7 ÷2.0 ÷1.5 B1.5 ÷1.1 GOES Sp 570 400 300 200 280 330 240 msh N 1 IMF + + + + + +/- - DSCOVR Å>2 2.9E+6 4.6E+6 5.0E+6 2.3å+7 4.5E+7 5.5E+7 1.0E+8 GOES Ie>2 133 289 856 1173 1817 1633 2058 pfu Ap 10 17 21 69 13 18 6 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 15 14 30 12 15 15 4 IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. Pr>10 MeV: 28.10/1532 UT; max 29/~0250 UT - 29 pfu; 03.11/1200 UT Pr>10 MeV: 03.11/1215 UT; max 03/2055 UT - 14 pfu; 04.11/1400 UT THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT OB- SERVED 3-7.11. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED 8-10.11. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION UP TO 3 AND AFTER 5.11 HAS CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. 3.11, AFTER THE ARRIVAL OF THE CME (SI-3/1957 UT) FROM THE FLARE OF CLASS M1.5, ACCOMPANIED BY ALL DYNAMIC PFENO- MENA, WHICH DETERMINES THE GEOEFFICIENCY OF THE FLARE EVENT IN EN- VIRONMENT, THE STRONG MAGNETIC STORM (G3, Ams=87, dur.=24 h) ACCOR- DING BY THE BOULDER CENTER DATA, AND MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams= 40, dur.= 24 h) ACCORDING BY THE IZMIRAN DATA HAS BEEN REGICTERED (Dst =-107). THE NEXT WEEK MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov