Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 08 - 14.11.2021, Forecast on 15 - 22.11.2021 Carrington Rotations 2250, 2251 (21,88.10; 18,18.11.2021) Earth out of ecliptic (-3.0 - -3.3) deg. (S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS ON LOW LEVELS. ESTIMA- TED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 21+4/-7 (Wn=35+ 16/-12). ON VISIBLE SOLAR DISK AT THE SAME TIME UP TO 2-3 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN- TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=030+20/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. ONE FLARE X-RAY CLASS "M", 3 FLARES CLASS "C", 52 - CLASS "B" AND 13 CO- RONAL MASS EJECTIONS (8- 11, 13- 14.11), 3 WERE TYPE II, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 09.11 1547 1702 1737 N19W89L214 M2.0 5.7E-02 12891 CME/1700 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft óH - S10L066 S32L076 S46L068 S18L051 8.5% 16.11 1 - SDO, HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 11.11/1440 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN BE EXPECT 13.11. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NOVEMBER 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 îïñâòø Wus 041 040 037 039 039 024 023 F10.7 088 092 088 085 083 081 078 èbcg B1.3 ÷1.3 ÷1.5 A9.0 A7.2 A7.7 A5.6 GOES Sp 570 400 300 200 220 110 170 msh N 1 14 IMF -/+ + + +/- - - - DSCOVR Å>2 1.3E+8 8.6E+7 2.1E+7 2.9å+7 3.5E+7 5.6E+7 5.0E+7 GOES Ie>2 3319 2487 1711 962 895 1185 1600 pfu Ap 5 7 8 4 4 3 3 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 6 7 6 4 4 2 3 IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. Pr>10 MeV: 09.11/1900 UT; max 09/~2125 UT - 2 pfu; 11.11/1600 UT THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 5.11/1425 UT AND OBSERVED 5-10.11. NEXT SIMILAR ELECTRON FLUX BEGUN AT 13.11/1425 UT AT OBSERVED 13-14.11. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED 15-20.11. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAIND QUITE. THE NEXT WEEK 16.11 THE EARTH IS PASSED HIGH SPEED STREAM FROM CORO- NAL HOLE 0F SOUTH HEMISPHERE OF SUN AND SPACE ENVIRONMENT WITH PROBA- BILITY ~40% CAN EXPECT MINOR MAGNETIC STORM/ IN OTHER DAYS MOST PRO- BABLE IS EXPECTED OF QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov