Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 15 - 24.11.2021, Forecast on 22 - 29.11.2021 Carrington Rotations 2250, 2251 (21,88.10; 18,18.11.2021) Earth out of ecliptic (-3.4 - -3.7) deg. (S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS ON LOW LEVELS. ESTIMA- TED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 21+4/-7 (Wn=35+ 16/-12). ON VISIBLE SOLAR DISK AT THE SAME TIME UP TO 3 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON LOW LEVEL. WEEKLY AVERA- GE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=020+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT VERY LOW LEVEL. 23 FLARE X-RAY CLASS "B", "A" CLASS -10, AND 9 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (15-21.11) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft óH - S10L066 S32L076 S46L068 S18L051 8.5% 15-16.11 1 - SDO, HINOTORI óî - S15L331 S30L349 S40L336 S15L323 2.3% 22.11 1 - SDO, HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 11.11/1440 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN BE EXPECT 26.11. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NOVEMBER 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 NOVEMBER Wus 024 035 033 022 022 022 022 F10.7 079 080 079 082 079 080 079 èbcg A6.8 A7.6 ÷3.5 A2.1 A1.6 A2.4 A2.0 GOES Sp 130 330 270 040 040 040 020 msh N 1 IMF - - - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 3.4E+7 2.2E+6 6.6E+6 8.7å+6 1.9E+7 1.7E+7 1.5E+7 GOES Ie>2 263 147 317 365 642 587 711 pfu Ap 9 13 12 5 5 10 12 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 9 13 11 5 5 5 15 IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 13.11/1425 UT AT OBSERVED 13-14.11. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE CONDINION OF A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams= 27, dur.= 12 h) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA MARKED 15-16.11. ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA 15.11 AT THE LAST 6 h REGISTERED BY THE G1 INTESI- TY SUBSTORM. THIS MAGNETIC DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME A CONSEQUENCE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM CORONAL HOLE "-" POLARI- TY OF THE SOLAR SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. IN THE REMAINING DAYS THE GEO- MAGNETIC CONDITION REMAIND QUITE. THE NEXT WEEK 22.11 THE EARTH IS PASSED HIGH SPEED STREAM FROM CORO- NAL HOLE OF THE SOLAR SOUTH HEMISPHERE BUT GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED ACTIVE WITH SEPARATE SUBSTORM. IN OTHER DAYS MOST PROBABLE IS EXPECTED OF QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov