Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 22 - 28.11.2021, Forecast on 29.11 - 05.12.2021 Carrington Rotations 2251 (18,18.11.2021) Earth out of ecliptic (-3.8 - -4.5) deg. (S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS ON LOW LEVELS. ESTIMA- TED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=24+8/-12 (Wn=40+ 13/-20). ON VISIBLE SOLAR DISK AT THE SAME TIME UP TO 3 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE - IN N-HEMISPHERE, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON LOW LEVEL. WEEKLY AVERA- GE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=020+30/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT VERY LOW LEVEL. 42 FLARE X-RAY CLASS "B", "A*" CLASS-22, AND 7 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (22, 24-26.11) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. * - The number of class "A" flares is determined by the level of the background X-ray (1-8A) radiation, if it is less than the back- ground, flares do not appear. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 24.11 1409 S34E20L290 >5 CME/1426 25.11 2345 0130 NE >10 CME -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft óî - S15L331 S30L349 S40L336 S15L323 2.3% 22.11 1 - SDO, HINOTORI óH - N20L250 S10L280 S18L277 S00L260 3.7% 27.11 1 - SDO, HINOTORI óî - S07L240 S18L245 S25L235 S12L225 ~3% 03.11 1 - SDO, HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 11.11/1440 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. AT PERIOD 25/2140 - 26/1840 UT WAS OBSERVED "+" SECTOR. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN BE EXPECT 4.11. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NOVEMBER 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 îïñâòø Wus 022 039 039 020 052 053 053 F10.7 078 080 083 094 092 092 092 èbcg A1.7 A3.2 ÷4.7 A5.7 A9.4 ÷1.0 ÷1.8 GOES Sp 030 080 050 090 190 320 020 msh N 1 2 IMF - - - -/+ +/- - - DSCOVR Å>2 2.3E+7 4.1E+7 6.8E+7 3.8å+7 6.1E+7 3.1E+7 2.5E+6 GOES Ie>2 702 1093 1610 999 2341 869 422 pfu Ap 9 8 5 5 4 5 9 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 10 10 4 5 3 3 7 IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BE- GUN AT 23.11/1650 UT AT OBSERVED 23-24.11. NEXT THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 26.11/1310 UT AT OBSERVED 26.11 ONLY. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED. ALL DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAIND QUITE AND UNSETTLED. CME FROM DSF 24- 25/11 UP THE LEVEL OF CEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE TO ACTIVE. THE NEXT WEEK, IN ANY CASE TILL 04.12 MOST PROBABLE IS EXPECTED OF QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov