25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MINIMUM THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON NOVEMBER 2021 HAS MADE Wnov. = 21 35.1(in new system) THAT GIVES FOR 17 MONTH (2021, MAY) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*may = 15.5 25.9 - in new system W*apr. = 14.9 24.9 - in new system On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n) MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n) THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031; Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for November 2021 (69 observatories): 1.. 53 6.. 35 11.. 44 16.. 33 21.. 23 26.. 46 2.. 43 7.. 31 12.. 36 17.. 30 22.. 23 27.. 42 3.. 34 8.. 39 13.. 25 18.. 23 23.. 33 28.. 47 4.. 28 9.. 45 14.. 20m 19.. 23 24.. 43 29.. 43 5.. 36 10.. 41 15.. 24 20.. 22 25.. 26 30.. 60M [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON NOVEMBER 2021, AND SMOOTHES ON 2021, MAY F10.7nov. = 86.2 F*10.7may.= 80.8 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON NOVEMBER 2021, AND SMOOTHES ON 2021, MAY Ap nov.= 9.9 Ap*may. = xxx --------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 29.11 - 05.12.2021, Forecast on 06 - 13.12.2021 Carrington Rotation 2251 (18,18.11.2021) Earth out of ecliptic (-3.4 - -3.7) deg. (S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM MODERATE TO LOW LEVELS. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W = 24+13/-7 (Wn=40+21/-11). ON VISIBLE SOLAR DISK AT THE SAME TIME UP TO 4 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS, TWO ON N-HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON LOW FND VERY LOW LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN- TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=030+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WERE AT MODERATE FND VERY LOW LEVEL. ONE FLARE X- RAY CLASS "M", 18- CLASS "C", 64- CLASS "B", FIVE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS AND 10 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (29.11, 1, 3, 4, 5.12) HA- VE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 05.12 0658 0719 >0736 S25W110L238 M1.4/ 1.9E-2 12898 CME/0736 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to ÷ó÷* to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 29.11 ~08 ~S35E15L233 >5 CME/1012 03.12 0512 N30W20L137 25 CME/1224 03.12 <1348 CME/1348 04.12 ~1057 S25W90L240 >5 CME/1225 05.12 1103 S45W10L 40 CME/1412 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft óH - S07L220 S18L245 S25L235 S12L225 3.5% 3-4.12 1 - SDO, HINOTORI óH + N30L128 N25L121 N20L131 N25L141 1.3% 8.12 1 - SDO, HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 30.11/0420 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN BE EXPECT 9.12. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NOVEMBER 29 30 01 02 03 04 05 îïñâòø Wus 047 061 037 045 029 035 036 F10.7 090 090 086 087 085 088 083 èbcg ÷1.6 ÷1.1 á7.8 A5.6 A9.4 B2.0 B1.2 GOES Sp 360 390 350 200 140 040 050 msh N 2 1 IMF - -/+ + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 2.1å+6 5.3E+6 9.7E+6 1.0E+8 1.1å+8 4.2E+7 5.0E+7 GOES Ie>2 214 341 527 2920 4883 1220 1288 pfu Ap 9 11 18 10 9 10 9 nô Dst -38 -43 -56 -40 -28 9 nô KIOTO Amsc 9 11 17 8 17 6 8 IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 2.12/1130 UT AND OBSERVED 2-5.12. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED 6-13.12. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDINION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. 30.11, 01 AND 03.12 IN THE CENTER IN BULDER AND IN IZMIRAN MARKED SUBSTORMS INTENSITY G1 AND DURATION OF 3-9 HOURS AS ANSWER TO PASSING THE CORO- NAL HOLE "+" POLARITY OF THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE AND THE CME ARRIVAL FROM THE SOLAR FULAMENT EJECTA 29.11. THE NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDINION IS EXPECT QUITE AND UNSETTLED, MAY BE EXSEPT 8-9.12. WHEN THE EARTH PASSED THE CORONAL HOLE "-" POLA- RITY HIGHSPEED STREAM. PROBABULUTY OF MAGNETIC STORM ~20%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov