25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MINIMUM Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 20 - 26.12.2021, Forecast on 27.12.2021 - 03.01.2022 Carrington Rotation 2252 (15,49.2021) Earth out of ecliptic (-5.7 - -6.5) deg. (S32 - N27 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS ON MIDDLE LEVEL. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER- NATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=54+22/-30 (Wn= 91+36/-51). ON VISIBLE SOLAR DISK UP 9 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS AND ONE MIDDLE SIZE HA- VE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=100+40/-40. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT MIDDLE (20-22.12) AND LOW LEVELS. FOUR FLARE X-RAY CLASS "M" AND 98- CLASS "C", TWO SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 23 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (20-26.12) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 20.12 1112 1155 1136 S20W01L295 M1.8/1N 3.0E-02 12908 II/2 CME/1236 21.12 0743 0757 0750 S17E89L192 M1.1/SF 5.9E-03 12916 21.12 1131 1149 1144 S17E89L192 M1.4 5.1E-03 12916 22.12 0654 0721 0706 S21W25L295 M1.3/1N 1.1E-02 12908 II/2 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. FL AR CME/to 20.12 0201 0218 SW 0.18 21.12 1728 S27E45L325 6 CME 26.12 0230 S36W48L165 20 CME/0436 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH - N10L320 S05L340 S15L317 S00L305 <8% 22.12 1 - SDO, HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 14.12/1840 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN BE EXPECT 28.12. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- DECEMBER 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 DECEMBER Wus 115 147 137 143 145 128 095 F10.7 123 137 140 130 126 131 125 èbcg B6.8 B7.4 B9.4 B8.0 B7.5 ÷8.8 ÷6.7 GOES Sp 430 600 730 800 950 860 750 msh N 1 2 2 2 1 1 IMF - - - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 1.8å+6 2.5E+7 5.0E+7 1.1E+8 9.2å+7 6.1E+7 8.5E+7 GOES Ie>2 227 962 1180 2410 2017 1352 2083 pfu Ap 16 10 11 4 5 7 3 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 13 12 13 4 6 7 3 IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN 22.12/1705 UT AND OBSERVED 22-26.12. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED 27.12-3.01 2022. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED AFTER 20.12 THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST PROBABLE A QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDI- TION. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov