25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MINIMUM Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 03 - 09.01.2022, Forecast on 10 - 17.01.2022 Carrington Rotations 2252, 2253 (15,49.12; 11,83.01.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (-7.3 - -6.7) deg. (S32 - N27 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW AND LOW LE- VELS. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=16+23/ -9 (Wn= 27+11/-15). ON VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 3 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH WAS THE MIDDLE SIZE, ALL ITS IN SOUTH HEMISFERE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN- TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=50+40/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. THREE FLARE X- RAY CLASS "C", 51- CLASS "B" AND 9 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (3-8. 01) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH - S20L074 S40L094 Ps S30L062 5.8% 8.01 1 SDO, HINOTORY * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.01/2305 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN BE EXPECT 22.01. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- JANUARY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 JANUARY Wus 012 112 024 035 038 031 036 F10.7 084 086 084 094 107 102 102 èbcg B1.4 B1.4 A8.8 B1.8 ÷3.2 ÷3.3 ÷2.7 GOES Sp 140 030 270 270 530 530 540 msh N 1 1 2 IMF + + + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 1.5å+7 3.5E+7 4.1E+7 4.1E+7 4.0å+7 5.8E+7 1.5E+6 GOES Ie>2 586 866 1009 910 821 2665 159 pfu Ap 12 6 3 2 2 14 10 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 11 4 4 2 0 18 8 IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN 8.02/1245UT AND OBSERVED 8.01 ONLY. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRO- NOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. BY THE END OF DAYS 8.01 AND IN THE CENTER IN BOLDER (G1) AND IN IZMIRAN (G2) A SIX HOURS SUBSTORM WAS OBSERVED, THE PROBABLE SOURCE OF WHICH WAS SOLAR WIND HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM CORONAL HOLE "-" PO- LARITY OF SOUTH HEMISPHERE. THIS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES AT ALL WAS NOT REFLECTED IN THE Dst-VARIATIONS, IN SPITE OF THE LARGE VALUE ÷z=-17 nT. THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST PROBABLE A QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov