25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MINIMUM Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 10 - 16.01.2022, Forecast on 17 - 24.01.2022 Carrington Rotations 2252, 2253 (15,49.12; 11,83.01.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (-6.6 - -6.1) deg. (S32 - N27 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS ON LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=16+23/-9 (Wn= 27+11/-15). ON VISIBLE SOLAR DISK UP 8 SUNSPOT GROUPS, TWO - THE MIDDLE SIZE, FOUR - IN SOUTH HEMISFERE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW AND LE- VELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=70+50/-40. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 1 FLARE X-RAY CLASS "M", 17-CLASS "C", 29-CLASS "B" AND 20 CORONAL MASS EJEC- TIONS (11-16.01), ONT OF WHICH WAS HALO-TYPE AND TWO - PARTIAL HALO II (13, 14.01) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 14.01 0147 0214 0203 N31E86 M1.8 1.4E-02 óíå/0305 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH - N06L332 S10L003 S35L357 S00L322 >5% 8.01 2 ííâ SDO, HINOTORY * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.01/2305 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN BE EXPECT 22.01. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- JANUARY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 JANUARY Wus 038 051 068 111 112 120 103 F10.7 102 100 103 106 110 116 116 èbcg B2.6 B1.9 ÷2.7 B3.1 ÷3.6 ÷4.1 ÷3.3 GOES Sp 590 680 590 680 580 830 660 msh N 1 3 IMF - - - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 1.4å+6 1.3E+6 2.0E+6 1.6E+6 1.6å+6 1.8E+6 4.8E+7 GOES Ie>2 232 123 219 137 164 166 2283 pfu Ap 6 5 4 3 15 22 19 nô Dst -94 -78 -52 nô KIOTO Amsc 10 3 4 3 20 28 15 IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BE- GUN 16/1445 UT AND OBSERVED 16.01. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRO- NOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED 17-24.01. MINOR Pr (10) MeV: To-~14 UT; Tmax-15/0100-1.41 pfu; Te-15/0930. POSSIBLE SOURCES: FLARE 14.01/1416 C4.4 S37W35 AR12925 (óíå/1336 pHIII). FLARE 14.01/1307 C3.5 S27W76 AR12924 "H" TYPE CME FROM b/s (NE) FLARE 9.01, EARTH's ENVIRONEMENT 14.01/~14 UT. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS CHANGING FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. BY THE END OF THE DAY ON 14.01, A 9-HOUR SUBSTORM OF INTENSITY (G2) WAS REGISTERED AT THE CENTER IN BOULDER AND IZMIRAN, THE SOURCE OF WHICH IS A BACKSIDE FLARE EVENT (NE) 9.01 WITH CME OF THE "HA- LO" TYPE. IN THE Dst-index SYSTEM, THIS DISTURBATION MANIFESTED AS A MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM INCREASING TO -94 nT. AT THE END OF THE DAY, A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams= 30, dur.= 12 h) ACCOR- DING OF IZMIRAN DATA, BUT ACCORDING OF BOULDER CENTER DATA IT WAS A 9 HOUR INTENSITY SUBSTORM (G1). THE SOURCE OF THE LAST DISTURBA- TION BECOMES A RECURRENT HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM FROM THE EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE "-" POLARITY. THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST PROBABLE A QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov