25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MINIMUM Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 10 - 16.01.2022, Forecast on 17 - 24.01.2022 Carrington Rotations 2252, 2253 (15,49.12; 11,83.01.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (-6.6 - -6.1) deg. (S32 - N27 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS ON LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=49+30/-16 (Wn= 49+50/-27). ON VISIBLE SOLAR DISK UP 7 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE - THE MIDDLE SIZE, FOUR - IN SOUTH HEMISFERE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW AND LE- VELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=70+50/-40. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 2 FLAREù X-RAY CLASS "M" (18, 20.01, 19-CLASS "C", 39-CLASS "B" AND 15 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (17-22.01), TWO OF WHICH WAS PARTIAL HALO II (13, 14.01) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 18.01 1701 1744 1810 N08W55L322 M1.5/SF 3.4E-02 12929 II/1 IV/1 CME/1748 20.01 0541 0601 0620 N08W68L322 M5.5/1F 4.3E-02 12929 II/2 IV/1 CME/0612 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 20.01 0711 0810 S20W42L224 12 12933 CME/0848 22.01 0636 N28E18L231 25 CME/1036 22.01 ~0600 NE >5 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH*+ N06L220 S10L232 S35L220 S00L203 3% 25.01 2 - SDO, HINOTORY CH + N22L242 N15L247 S15L228 S12L223 2.6% 27.01 11 - SDO, HINOTORY * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.01/2305 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN BE EXPECT 25.01. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- JANUARY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 JANUARY Wus 099 059 057 060 023 022 022 F10.7 114 115 105 099 097 095 094 èbcg B3.1 B2.5 ÷2.1 B2.1 ÷1.4 ÷1.2 A9.8 GOES Sp 580 600 570 260 200 180 190 msh N 1 IMF - - - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 8.9å+7 1.5E+8 1.2E+8 1.3E+8 1.4å+8 1.3E+8 2.4E+8 GOES Ie>2 2021 4360 3588 2656 3999 4044 6126 pfu Ap 9 18 23 5 8 10 8 nô Dst -32 -37 -45 -23 -22 nô KIOTO Amsc 9 17 20 3 10 11 6 IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BE- GUN 16/1445 UT AND OBSERVED 16-23.01. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRO- NOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED 17-24.01. MINOR Pr>10MeV: To-20/0600 UT; Tmax-20/1000-22.7 pfu; Te-24/12UT. SOURCES: Flare 20.01/0541 M5.5 N08W68 AR12929 (óíå/0612 pH II). THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS CHANGING FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. HOWEVER ON THE BEGINNING OF THE 19.01, A DISTURBATION FROM THE FILAMENT EJECTION AT 17.01 COME TO EARTH. ACCORDING TO BOULDER CENTER'S DATA, A 9-hour SUBSTORM (G2) WAS OBSERVED, AND ACCOR- DING TO THE DATA OF IZMIRAN THIS WAS A 6-hour SUBSTORM, INTEN- SITY (G1) ONLY. THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST LIKELY A QUIET AND ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CON- DITION TO BE EXPECTED ALL DAYS EXCEPT, MAY BE, 24 - 25.01, WHEN DISTURBATIONS FROM THE LARGE FLARE AND THE FILAMENT EJECTION AT 20.01 COME TO THE EARTH AND. THE 27.01, THE EARTH WILL ENTER IN THE HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM FROM THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL CO- RONAL HOLE "+" POLARITY. THE PROBABILITY OF A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM IS NO MORE THAN 20%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov