25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MINIMUM Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 24 - 30.01.2022, Forecast on 31.01 - 6.02.2022 Carrington Rotations 2253 (11,83.01.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (-6.0 - -5.6)) deg. (S32 - N27 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW AND LOW LE- VELS. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=39+12/ -23 (Wn= 65+20/-39). ON VISIBLE SOLAR DISK UP 5 SUNSPOT GROUPS, 1 - THE LARGE SIZE, 3 - IN NORTH HEMISFERE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER- NATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=060+40/-30. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH (29.01) AND LOW LEVELS. 1 FLARE X-RAY CLASS "M" (29.01), 59-CLASS "C", 75-CLASS "B" AND 16 CORO- NAL MASS EJECTIONS (24, 26, 28 - 30.01), 1 OF WHICH WAS PARTIAL HALO II (29.01) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 29.01 2232 2332 0032 N18E06L113 M1.1/SF - 12936 óíå 2336 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW, MIDDLE AND, WITH LOW POSSIBILITY, HIGH LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH*+ N06L220 S10L232 S35L220 S00L203 3% 25.01 2 - SDO, HINOTORY CH + N22L242 N15L247 S15L228 S12L223 2.6% 27.01 11 - SDO, HINOTORY * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 25.01/2330 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN BE EXPECT 4.02. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- JANUARY 24 25 26 27 27 29 30 JANUARY Wus 026 053 071 085 077 074 070 F10.7 095 101 102 107 113 125 130 èbcg B1.5 B2.3 ÷2.5 B2.3 ÷3.5 ÷6.8 ÷8.2 GOES Sp 170 190 310 200 540 760 930 msh N 1 2 1 1 IMF - -/+ + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 3.0å+8 5.9E+6 1.8E+6 4.6E+6 1.1å+7 1.1E+7 2.6E+7 GOES Ie>2 1023 2331 2083 379 493 505 859 pfu Ap 4 13 10 7 8 17 10 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 3 11 11 9 8 10 10 IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BE- GUN 16.01/1445 UT AND OBSERVED 16-26.01. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRO- NOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS CHANGING FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. AT THE END OF THE DAY ON 28.01 THE EARTH ENTERED A HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM THE EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE "+" POLARITY WITH A WEAK MAGNETIC FIELD AND ACCORDING TO THE BOULDER CENTER DATA A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams=30, dur.=18 h) WAS OBSERVED, BUT ACCORDING THE IZMIRAN DATA WAS REGISTERED 3-hour SUBSTORM, IN- TENSITY (G0) ONLY. THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST LIKELY A QUIET AND ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CON- DITION TO BE EXPECTED ALL DAYS EXCEPT 2.02, WHEN DISTURBATIONS FROM THE M1.1 FLARE COME TO THE EARTH. THE PROBABILITY OF A MI- NOR MAGNETIC STORM IS 20%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov