25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, 
                THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MINIMUM      

       Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                   Highlights on 07 - 13.02.2022,
                    Forecast on 14 - 21.02.2022 
   Carrington Rotations 2253, 2254 (11,83.01; 08,12.02.2022)   
              Earth out of ecliptic (-5.0 - -4.6) deg. 
              (S35 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS ON MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS.
ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER  
IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=44+8/-12 (Wn=73
+13/-20). ON VISIBLE SOLAR DISK UP 6 SUNSPOT GROUPS, 1-THE MID-
DLå SIZE, 2 - IN NORTH HEMISPHERE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

 NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 
WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER-
NATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=060+40/-30. 

 FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVELS. ONE FLARE X-RAY CLASS "M", 
35 - CLASS "C", 29 - CLASS "B", TWO SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION  AND 
19 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (7, 8, 10-13.02) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
       to   tm   te     local.   Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV  CME
                                X-ray/Ïp  J/m-2 
12.02 0825 0844 0857 S19W84L037  M1.4/SN 1.6E-2 12939 II/2|642 IV/1
                                                           CME/0923
DSF (EPL) to      te  localization  l deg.  Fl    AR     CME/to
11.02     1125      S17å24L052       9               óíå/1624?
12.02     0843      S45E28L328       6
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NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW, AND, THE HIGH POSSI-
BILITY, MIDDLE LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign N end   E end   S end   W end   Sch   EE  R  G  Spacecraft 
CH*-  S12L333 S35L352 S37L350 S15L330 1.5% 14.02 3  G1 SDO, HINOTORY
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
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AFTER 3.02/2330 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY 
MAGNETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN BE EXPECT 21.02.
----------------------------------------------------------------------- 
JANUARY   07     08     09     10     11     12     13  æå÷òáìø
Wus      078    086    078    078    086    054    053 
F10.7    127    123    126    118    113    111    105
èbcg    B5.3   B4.7   ÷4.6   B4.1   ÷3.9   ÷5.1   ÷4.2  GOES
Sp       550    590    700    680    570    450    440  msh   
N                1             1      3                 
IMF       -      +      +     +/-     -      -      -   DSCOVR   
Å>2   3.4å+8 5.6E+8 4.9E+8 1.3E+8 9.3å+7 1.2E+7 1.2E+8  GOES
Ie>2    6345  11396  10188   7543   6612    428   5213  pfu
Ap        7      5      3      21     20     13     15  nô  
Dst                    -13    -70    -52    -38    -33  nô KIOTO
Amsc      8      6      4      25     21     14     15  IZMIRAN 
------------------------------------------------------------------------            
Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT  BE-
GUN 3.02/1310 UT AND OBSERVED 3-11.02. NEXT FLUX BEGUN 13.02/1300.
 
 NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS 
 ORBIT IS EXPECTED 14-211.02.

 A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=35, dur.= 12 h) ACCORDING TO THE 
CENTER IN BOULDER  AND 9 h A SUBSTORM OF INTENSITY (G1) ACCORDING 
TO THE IZMIRAN DATA, NOTICED AT THE END OF DAY 10.02, WAS A CONSE-
QUENCE OF THE COMING TO THE EARTH OF A DISTURBANCE (CME) FROM THE 
EJECTION FIBER 6.02. A DAY IN ONE DAY, BOTH DATA CENTERS REGISTE-
RED A 6 h SUBSTORM (G1).

THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST LIKELY A QUIET AND ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDI-
TION TO BE EXPECTED ALL DAYS. HOWEVER, 14.02 THERE IS A FEW (10%) 
PROBABILITY THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM OCCURENCE  FROM A HIGH-SPEED 
STREAM OF THE TRANSEQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE "-" POLARITY, ALTHOUGH 
THE INTENSITY OF THE MAGNETIC FIELD IN CH SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED 
IN THE LAST DAY.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov