25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MINIMUM Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 14 - 20.02.2022, Forecast on 21 - 28.02.2022 Carrington Rotations 2254 (08,12.02.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (-4.0 - -3.6) deg. (S33 - N27 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS ON MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 44+13/-15 (Wn= 73+38/-29). ON VISIBLE SOLAR DISK UP 8 SUNSPOT GROUPS, 1-THE MID- DLå SIZE, 4 - IN NORTH HEMISPHERE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. FROM THE EASTERN LIMB IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE A COMPLEX OF AC- TIVE REGIONS WITH A LARGE SUNSPOT GROUP APPEARED. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=060+40/-30. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVELS. TWO FLARE X-RAY CLASS "M", 11 - CLASS "C", 37 - CLASS "B", ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION, AND 20 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (14-20.02) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 14.02 1702 1731 1751 N26W62L344 M1.0/SF 1.7E-02 12941 15.02 1754 1831 1815 N26W81L344 M1.3/SF 12941 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 19.02 1623 S35E54L277 10 CME/1853 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW, MIDDLE AND, MAY BE HIGH LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH* - S12L333 S35L352 S37L350 S15L330 1.5% 14.02 3 G1 SDO, HINOTORY CH - N30L211 S11L231 S15L223 N25L203 3.3% 20.02 3 - SDO, HINOTORY * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 3.02/2330 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN BE EXPECT 21.02. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FEBRUARY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 FEBRUARY Wus 072 073 111 103 053 051 049 F10.7 107 114 103 097 093 096 093 èbcg B3.5 B4.1 ÷3.0 B2.4 ÷1.9 ÷1.4 ÷1.9 GOES Sp 530 420 340 190 100 080 120 msh N 2 3 1 IMF - - - -/+/- - - -/+ DSCOVR Å>2 2.3å+8 3.7E+8 2.8E+8 3.9E+7 1.1å+8 1.6E+6 2.1E+6 GOES Ie>2 5483 7941 9022 1783 4650 201 157 pfu Ap 8 5 9 5 6 9 13 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 7 4 12 5 8 8 10 IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BE- GUN 13.02/1300 AND OBSERVED 13-19.02. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED. Pr (>10 MeV) To -15/~02; MAX1 - 16/1400-1.27 pfu; MAX2 - 18/2100-1.89 pfu; MAX3 - 19/2100-1.19 Pfu - continues GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUITE AND UNSETTLED ALL DAYS. THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST LIKELY A QUIET AND ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDI- TION TO BE EXPECTED ALL DAYS. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov