25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MINIMUM Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 21 - 27.02.2022, Forecast on 28.02 - 07.03.2022 Carrington Rotations 2254, 2255 (08,12.02; 07,51.03.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (-4.0 - -3.5) deg. (S35 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS ON LOW LEVELS. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN- TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=21+8/-8 (Wn= 34+14/-12). THERE ARE ON VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN UP 4 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP, 3 IN NORTH HEMISPHERE, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER- NATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=60+40/-30. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVELS. C5 FLARE X-RAY CLASS "C", 64 - CLASS "B", ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION, AND 7 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (22-23, 24-27.02) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 22.02 0056 0157 S06W70L 10 12946 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW, LOW AND, MAY BE MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 20.02/0145 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN BE EXPECT 2.03. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FEBRUARY 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 æå÷òáìø Wus 048 038 038 023 022 022 048 F10.7 098 095 096 092 096 097 097 èbcg B1.7 B1.4 ÷1.3 B1.1 ÷1.4 ÷1.6 ÷1.5 GOES Sp 190 280 260 200 160 180 220 msh N 1 IMF + + + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 3.6å+6 1.3E+7 1.3E+7 2.7E+7 3.0å+7 4.0E+7 5.3E+6 GOES Ie>2 232 553 451 917 897 1219 811 pfu Ap 12 16 6 7 8 3 14 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 9 12 8 7 7 2 12 IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NO OBSERVED 26.02. ONLY. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED. Pr (>10 MeV) To -15/~02; MAX1 - 16/1400-1.27 pfu; To -24/00 UT/ MAX2 - 18/2100-1.89 pfu; MAX3 - 19/2100-1.19 Pfu. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUITE AND UNSETTLED ALL DAYS. THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST LIKELY A QUIET AND ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDI- TION TO BE EXPECTED ALL DAYS. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov