SOLAR CYCLE DATA AND FORECAST AT PRESENT THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON FEBRUARY 2021 HAS MADE Wfeb. =36.0 59.7(in new system) THAT GIVES FOR 20 MONTH (2021, AUGUST) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*aug = 21.2 35.3 - in new system W*jul = 19.0 27.8 - in new system On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n) MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n) THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031; PROVISIONAL DAILY INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMDER FOR FEBRUARY 2022 (72 observatories): 1.. 76 6.. 76 11.. 75 16.. 83 21.. 48 26.. 25 2.. 68 7.. 76 12.. 52 17.. 80 22.. 37 27.. 32 3.. 80 8.. 72 13.. 43 18.. 49 23.. 35 28.. 55 4.. 99M 9.. 67 14.. 63 19.. 41 24.. 31 5.. 89 10.. 71 15.. 81 20.. 44 25.. 23m [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON FEBRUARY 2021, AND SMOOTHES ON 2021, AUGUST F10.7feb. = 109.1 F*10.7aug.= 85.7 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON FEBRUARY 2021, AND SMOOTHES ON 2021, AUGUST Ap feb.= 10.5 Ap*aug. = xxx --------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MINIMUM Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 28.02 - 06.03.2022, Forecast on 07 - 14.03.2022 Carrington Rotations 2254, 2255 (08,12.02; 07,51.03.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (-3.4 - -2.8) deg. (S35 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS ON LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=44+13/-7 (Wn= 73+22/-11). THERE ARE ON VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN UP 8 SUNSPOT GRO- UP, ONE OF THEM WAS MIDDLE SIZE AND 5 IN NORTH HEMISPHERE, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER- NATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=60+40/-30. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVELS. ONE FLARE X-RAY CLASS "M", C24 - CLASS "C", 64 - CLASS "B", 4 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION, AND 14 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (28.03, 1-2.03; no data for 3-6.03) HA- VE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 02.03 1731 1747 1739 N15E29L023 M2.0/1B 1.1E-02 12959 II/3/690 óíå/1824 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 05.03 1519 S18W03L023 5 CME 05.03 1643 N20W70L316 10 CME 05.03 1722 S31E52L078 5 CME 06.03 0000 0013 S15W27l041 >5 SF 12961 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW, MIDDLE AND, MAY BE HIGH LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 03.03/1030 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN BE EXPECT 19.03. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FEBRUARY 28 01 02 03 04 05 06 MARCH Wus 065 062 066 092 077 095 082 F10.7 099 099 110 111 113 120 116 èbcg B1.7 B2.4 ÷3.7 B4.0 ÷4.8 ÷3.3 ÷3.5 GOES Sp 170 180 440 570 830 830 670 msh N 1 3 1 IMF + + + +/- - - - DSCOVR Å>2 1.8å+6 2.7E+6 3.1E+6 5.5E+6 3.6å+6 2.4E+6 1.2E+8 GOES Ie>2 232 553 451 917 897 1219 3550 pfu Ap 8 8 4 13 11 27 18 nô Dst -13 -53 -55 nô KIOTO Amsc 6 8 4 7 13 25 12 IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 6/1250 UT AND OBSERVED 6.03. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED AT 7-14.03. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUITE AND UNSETTLED ALL DAYS BESIDE 02. 03, WHEN TO EARTH COMES THE DISTURBANCE FROM FLARE EVENT 2.03. MI- NOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams= 36, dur.=24 h) ACCORDING DATA OF BOUL- DER CENTER AND (G1, Ams= 38, dur.=12 h) ACCORDING DATA OF IZMIRAN. THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST LIKELY A QUIET AND ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDI- TION TO BE EXPECTED ALL DAYS. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov