25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MINIMUM Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 07 - 13.03.2022, Forecast on 14 - 21.03.2022 Carrington Rotations 2254, 2255 (08,12.02; 07,51.03.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (-3.4 - -2.8) deg. (S35 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS ON MIDDLE LEVEL. ESTIMA- TED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=51+5/-13 (Wn=85+ 8/-21). THERE ARE ON VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN UP 6 SUNSPOT GROUP, 1 OF THEM WAS THE BIG AND 1 -T HE MIDDLE SIZE AND 3 IN NORTH HE- MISPHERE, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIO- NAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=70+50/-30. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL. 1 FLARE X-RAY CLASS "M", 28- CLASS "C", 27- CLASS "B", 4 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION, AND 30 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (7-14.03) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 11.03 2213 2232 2238 S27W63L010 M2.2 12964 óíå/2312 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 07.03 N17W29L036 ? 12958 08.03 0300 N20W70L316 >5 12958 CME/0424 10.03 <0130 SE >5 CME/0130 13.02 <0030 >1354 S62W44L 19 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW, MIDDLE AND, MAY BE HIGH LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 03.03/1030 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN BE EXPECT 19.03. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- MARCH 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 MARCH Wus 084 093 089 090 081 093 064 F10.7 118 115 115 127 127 125 123 èbcg B4.7 B4.4 ÷3.6 B4.3 ÷6.8 ÷5.1 ÷4.7 GOES Sp 510 480 920 1170 1080 1040 940 msh N 1 2 1 1 1 IMF - - - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 3.5å+8 2.1E+8 2.6E+8 2.9E+8 2.6å+6 1.2E+6 4.6E+6 GOES Ie>2 10194 4769 5129 896 209 161 583 pfu Ap 9 6 5 10 20 13 40 nô Dst -32 -50 -81 nô KIOTO Amsc 9 7 5 8 20 10 24 IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 6/1250 UT AND OBSERVED 6-11.03. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED. Pr (>10 MeV) To-10.03/~22; MAX1 - 11/0200-1.37 pfu; MAX2 - 11/0700-2.4 pfu; ôÅ - 13.03/18 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUIET TO THE LEVEL OF A MODE- RATE MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams=66, dur.=18 h) ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF CENTER IN BOULDER AND (G1, Ams= 44, dur.= 12 h) ACCORDING TO THE DA- TA OF IZMIRAN AFTER ARRIVAL TO EARTH THE INTERPLANETARY SHOCK WAVE (SSC-13/1052 UT) FROM X-RAY FLARE M2.2 11.03. AT THE BORDER OF DAYS ON 11 - 12.03 A SUBSTORM OF G1 INTENSITY AND DURATION 9 HOURS WERE MADE IN BOTH BOULDER AND IZMIRAN, WHEN TO EARTH COMES THE DISTURBAN- CE FROM SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS 5-6.03. THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST LIKELY A QUIET AND ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDI- TION TO BE EXPECTED ALL DAYS. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov