25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MINIMUM Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 13 - 20.03.2022, Forecast on 21 - 28.03.2022 Carrington Rotations 2255 (07,51.03.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (-2.0 - -1.3) deg. (S35 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM MIDDLE TO LOW LEVELS. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=30 +19/-13 (Wn= 50+32/-23). THERE ARE ON VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN UP 4 SUNSPOT GROUP, 1 OF THEM WAS THE BIG AND 3 IN NORTH HEMISPHERE, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIO- NAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=50+50/-30. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL. 2 FLARE X-RAY CLASS "M", 19 - CLASS "C", 38- CLASS "B", 2 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION, AND 22 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (14-20.03) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 14.03 1233 1244 1239 N23W10L265 M1.4/SN 5.1E-03 12965 15.03 2239 2252 2246 N23W17L265 M1.5 12965 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 16.03 1214 1242 N27E30L270 10 12967 19.03 1133 S30E34L244 CME/1530 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW, AND, MAY BE, MID- DLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft óî + N03L180 N00L190 S21L190 S10L175 2.1% 23.03 1 A SDO HINODE * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 20.03/1600 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANE- TARY MAGNETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN BE EXPECT 30.03. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- MARCH 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 MARCH Wus 082 071 041 053 027 029 039 F10.7 115 110 107 103 096 094 095 èbcg B5.1 B3.6 ÷2.9 B2.7 ÷1.8 ÷2.5 ÷2.7 GOES Sp 670 490 290 280 230 190 080 msh N 2 1 1 1 1 IMF - - - - - - -/+ DSCOVR Å>2 1.5å+6 1.5E+6 1.7E+6 5.9E+6 7.0å+6 6.0E+6 1.2E+6 GOES Ie>2 186 234 158 281 287 326 168 pfu Ap 14 7 5 6 4 5 8 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 12 9 6 4 4 4 7 IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED 24-28.03. Pr (>10 MeV) To 14.03/~21; max - 15/0159-1.37 pfu; ôÅ - 13.03/18 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVEL. THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST LIKELY A QUIET AND ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITI- ON TO BE EXPECTED ALL DAYS, EXEPT FOR 23-25.03, WHEN THE EARTH WILL ENTER THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF SOLAR WIND FROM THE TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE "+" POLARITY AND TO ENVIRONMENT, THE CME FROM, AT THE MOMENT, NOT DETERMINED FLARE EVENT 20.03. THE PROBABILITY OF A MAGNE- TIC STORM IS ABOUT 20%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov