25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MINIMUM Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 21 - 27.03.2022, Forecast on 28.03 - 04.04.2022 Carrington Rotations 2255, 2556 (07,51.03; 3,81.04.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (-1.2 - -0.5) deg. (S35 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW LEVEL. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN- TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=28+30/-12 (Wn= 46+51/-19) THERE ARE ON VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN UP TO 3 SUNSPOT GROUPS, 1 OF THEM WAS THE BIG AND 3 IN NORTH HEMISPHERE, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=70+50/-30. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL. 1 FLARE X-RAY CLASS "M", 42 - CLASS "C", 29- CLASS "B", 1 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION, AND 19 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (21-28.03), TWO OF WHICH WERE OF TYPE II, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 25.03 0502 0550 0526 S18E37L090 M1.5/1F 2.6E-02 12974 II/2|IV/2 CME/0536 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 24.03 >0032 >1337 N57W08L152 15 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW, AND, MAY BE, MID- DLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft óî + N03L180 N00L190 S21L190 S10L175 2.1% 23.03 1 A SDO HINODE * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 20.03/1600 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANE- TARY MAGNETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN BE EXPECT 30.03. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- MARCH 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 MARCH Wus 030 029 027 044 050 048 097 F10.7 098 106 106 112 112 119 130 èbcg B2.5 B4.1 ÷6.2 B5.0 ÷3.4 ÷3.9 ÷6.0 GOES Sp 060 100 250 620 640 590 780 msh N 1 1 1 2 IMF + + + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 1.1å+6 1.4E+6 1.2E+6 1.0E+6 1.8å+6 2.9E+6 1.1E+6 GOES Ie>2 138 325 166 113 194 253 117 pfu Ap 4 9 7 9 10 7 18 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 5 9 6 8 7 6 20 IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED. Pr (>10 MeV) To-21.03/0630; max-21/0930-5.7 pfu; ôÅ-23.03/18 (b/s) THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVEL, BUT 27 - 28.03 A DITSURBANCE FROM A FLARE 25.03 COME TO THE EARTH AND IN THE NEAR-EARTH SPACE, ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF THE CENTER IN BOULDER, A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams=27, dur.=20 h) WAS NO- TED, BUT ACCORDING TO THE IZMIRAN DATA, IT WAS A 6-hour SUBSTORM OF INTENSITY G1. THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST LIKELY A QUIET AND ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITI- ON TO BE EXPECTED ALL DAYS. DISTURBANCES IN NES WILL BE DETERMINED ONLY FLARE GEOEFFICIENT EVENTS WHICH ARE NOT STIL EXPECTED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov