25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MINIMUM THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON MARCH 2021 HAS MADE Wmar. =47.0 78.4(in new system) THAT GIVES FOR 21 MONTH (2021, SEPTEMBER) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*sep. = 24.0 40.0 - in new system W*aug. = 21.2 35.3 - in new system On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n) MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n) THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031; PROVISIONAL DAILY INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMDER FOR MARCH 2022 (74 observatories): 1.. 71 6.. 80 11.. 91 16.. 62 21.. 51 26.. 61 31..124 2.. 78 7.. 90 12.. 91 17.. 51 22.. 47 27.. 94 3.. 88 8.. 91 13.. 85 18.. 35m 23.. 49 28..136 4.. 87 9.. 88 14.. 83 19.. 36 24.. 51 29..144M 5.. 84 10.. 95 15.. 74 20.. 51 25.. 51 30..113 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON MARCH 2021, AND SMOOTHES ON 2021, SEPTEMBER F10.7mar. = 109.1 F*10.7sep.= èèè THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON MARCH 2021, AND SMOOTHES ON 2021, SEPTEMBER Ap mar.= 10.5 Ap*sep. = xxx --------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MINIMUM Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 28.03 - 03.04.2022, Forecast on 04 - 11.04.2022 Carrington Rotations 2255, 2556 (07,51.03; 3,81.04.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (-0.5 - +0.3) deg. (S35 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT MIDDLE LEVEL. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN- TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=77+2/-33 (Wn= 109+16/-36). THERE ARE ON VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN UP TO 8 SUNSPOT GROUPS, 2 OF THEM WAS THE BIG, 1 - AVERAGE SIZE AND 5 IN NORTH HEMISPHERE, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=100+50/-50. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL. 1 FLARE X-RAY WAS CLASS "X" 12- "M", 69 - CLASS "C", ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 29 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (28.03-03.04), ONE OF WHICH WAS OF TYPE "HALO" AND 3 - TYPE II, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 28.03 1058 1129 1145 M4.0 N14W04 4.4E-02 12975 II/3|1259 IV/2 28.03 1732 1741 1747 M1.0 N13W08 8.0E-03 12975 28.03 1908 1923 1940 M1.0 N14W07 1.7E-02 12975 28.03 2049 2059 2109 M1.1 N13W10 1.1E-02 12975 29.03 0057 0111 0611 2N/M2.2 N12W12 2.5E-02 12975 29.03 0148 0158 0203 2N/M1.1 N13W11 8.0E-03 12975 29.03 0917 0938 0955 M1.0 N13W19 4.1E-03 12975 29.03 2143 2152 2157 M1.6 N15W24 12975 30.03 1721 1737 1746 X1.3 N13W31 9.6E-02 12975 II/3|1424 IV/1 31.03 1817 1835 1934 M9.6/1B N12W47 7.6E-02 12975 II/2|772 IV/ 02.03 0239 0256 0307 M2.9 N13W68 2.3E-02 12975 02.03 1256 1511 1444 M3.9/1N N12W68 1.4E-01 12976 II/2|956 02.03 1734 1744 1751 M4.3/1N N13W78 2.1E-02 12975 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 03.04 1500 1800 S22W30L329 15 CME/1636 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW, MIDDLE AND, MAY BE, HIGH LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft óî - S22L050 N00L035 S21L050 S10L030 2.1% 03-04.03 3 G1 SDO HINODE * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 01.03/1145 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANE- TARY MAGNETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN BE EXPECT 17.04. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- MARCH 28 29 30 31 01 02 03 áðòåìø Wus 125 124 073 084 109 118 129 F10.7 156 149 151 149 147 143 140 èbcg B8.7 ó1.3 ÷8.9 ó1.2 ó1.2 ó1.0 ÷7.7 GOES Sp 980 1160 1560 1170 1220 1180 1230 msh N 2 1 1 2 1 IMF + + + + +/- - - DSCOVR Å>2 8.2å+6 9.3E+6 4.4E+6 1.5E+6 1.6å+6 2.2E+7 9.4E+7 GOES Ie>2 362 570 243 158 156 1178 2596 pfu Ap 10 7 8 27 17 22 10 nô Dst -2 -28 -42 nô KIOTO Amsc 7 8 7 20 9 14 8 IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN 03/0920 AND OBSERVED 3-4.04. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED 4-6.04. Pr (>10 MeV) To 28.03/1100; max - 28/1450-19 pfu; ôÅ - 30.03/18 Pr (>10 MeV) To 30.03/1800; max - 31/0600-11 pfu; ôÅ - 02.04/00 Pr (>10 MeV) To 02.04/1200; max - 02/1600-32 pfu; ôÅ - >04.03/12 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MINOR MAGNETIC STORM LEVELS. 30 -31.03 ACCORDING OF BOULDER CENTER DATA NOTED THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM DATA (G1, Ams= 35, dur.= 21 h) WHEN A DITSUR- BANCE FROM A FLARE M4.0 28.03 COME TO THE EARTH BUT ACCORDING TO THE IZMIRAN DATA, IT WAS A 9-hour SUBSTORM OF INTENSITY G1. THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST LIKELY A QUIET AND ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITI- ON TO BE EXPECTED ALL DAYS. DISTURBANCES IN ENVIROMENT WILL BE DETE- RMINED ONLY FLARE GEOEFFICIENT EVENTS. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov