25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MINIMUM Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 04 - 10.04.2022, Forecast on 11 - 18.04.2022 Carrington Rotations 2556 (3,81.04.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (0.4 - 1.0) deg. (S35 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM MIDDLE TO VERY LOW LEVELS. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 33+19/-25 (Wn= 54+32/-41). THERE ARE ON VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN UP TO 6 SUN- SPOT GROUPS, 1 OF THEM WAS AVERAGE SIZE AND 3 IN NORTH HEMISPHERE, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=060+50/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL. 26 FLARES X-RAY WAS CLASS "C" 27-CLASS "B", FOUR SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 38 CORONAL MASS EJEC- TIONS (04-10.04), ONE OF WHICH WAS OF TYPE "HALO" AND FIVE- TYPE II, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 04.04 1048 SW >5 CME 04.04 2034 S26E11L356 12 12982 CME 07.04 >0049 >1332 S30E02L321 17 07.04 0611 S41E27L346 27 CME ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW, AND, MAY BE, MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft óî - N10L330 N00L045 S22L340 S15L320 4.0% 9.04 1 A SDO HINODE * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 01.03/1145 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANE- TARY MAGNETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN BE EXPECT 17.04. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- APRIL 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 APRIL Wus 086 075 061 052 055 037 013 F10.7 128 122 117 111 109 107 101 èbcg ÷8.2 ÷5.3 ÷5.0 ÷3.2 ÷3.0 ÷3.7 ÷2.6 GOES Sp 128 122 117 111 109 107 040 msh N 1 1 IMF - - - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 8.6å+7 1.1E+8 1.4E+8 6.7E+7 2.8å+6 5.2E+6 4.0E+6 GOES Ie>2 3916 2903 3827 9207 306 334 623 pfu Ap 11 6 8 15 9 19 32 nô Dst -24 -30 -44 nô KIOTO Amsc 11 6 6 10 9 16 19 IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN 03/0920 AND OBSERVED 3-7.04. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. ON APRIL 9, THE EARTH ENTERED THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE AND THE MAGNETIC SUBSTORMS OF G0 INTENSITY WERE OBSERVED IN ENIRO- NEMENT SPACE. 10.03 ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA A VERY IN- TENSE (G7) 9-HOUR SUBSTORM WAS OBSERVED, BUT BY THE IZMIRAN DATA IT WAS A 6-HOUR SUBSTORM OF G1 INTENSITY. THE SOURCE OF THE LAST DISTURBATION WAS TWO SEQUENTIAL EJECTA OF SOLAR FILAMENT 7.04, THE CORONAL MASS EJEC- TIONS OF WHICH APPEARED TO INTERACT DURING PROPAGATION IN INTERPLANETARY SPACE - A VERY INTERESTING AND RARE CASE FOR STUDY. THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST LIKELY A QUIET AND ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITI- ON TO BE EXPECTED ALL DAYS. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov