25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MINIMUM THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON APRIL 2022 HAS MADE Wmar. =50.4 84.0(in new system) THAT GIVES FOR 22 MONTH (2021, OCTOBER) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*Ïct. = 27.0 45.0 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ W*sep. = 24.0 40.0 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n) MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n) THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031; PROVISIONAL DAILY INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMDER FOR APRIL 2022 (73 observatories): 1..128 6.. 74 11.. 11m 16.. 64 21..114 26..132 2..121 7.. 58 12.. 14 17.. 85 22..110 27..132 3..118 8.. 52 13.. 33 18..101 23..128 28..135í 4.. 81 9.. 38 14.. 41 19.. 96 24..127 29..107 5.. 86 10.. 21 15.. 47 20.. 99 25..118 30.. 51 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON APRIL 2022, AND SMOOTHES ON 2021, OCTOBER F10.7apr. = 130.8 F*10.7oct.= èèè THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON APRIL 2022, AND SMOOTHES ON 2021, OCTOBER Ap apr.= 12 Ap*oct. = xxx --------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MINIMUM Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 25.04 - 01.05.2022, Forecast on 02 - 09.05.2022 Carrington Rotations 2556, 2257 (3,81.04; 01,1.05. 2022) Earth out of ecliptic (2.1 - 2.6) deg. (S32 - N27 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS ON MIDLLE AND LOW LEVELS. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 52+19/-27 (Wn=87+31/ -51). THERE ARE ON VISIBLE SOLAR DISK UP TO 8 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE WAS THE LARGE AND 4 WAS ON NOTH HEMISPHERE, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYS- TEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=060+40/-30. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 1 FLARES X- RAY WAS CLASS "X", 10 -CLASS "M", 77 -CLASS "C", 4 SOLAR FILAMENTS EJECTION AND 53 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (25.04 -1.05), FIVE OF WHICH WAS OF TYPE II (angular width 90-180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 25.04 0110 0156 0156 N26W24L111 M1.0/SF 12993 25.04 0118 0239 0201 N14E06L076 M1.2/ 3.9E-02 12995 25.04 0352 0407 0410 N21W34L111 M1.1/SF 5.4E-03 12993 CME/0412 29.04 0715 0730 0756 N26W39L067 M1.2/1F 1.2E-02 12996 CME/0736|1736km/s 29.04 1801 1810 1822 N15W86L111 M1.2/DSF 9.9E-03 12994 29.04 1802 1900 1810 N26W87L111 M1.3 9.9E-03 12993 30.04 0446 0507 0501 N14W88L111 M2.6 1.2E-02 12994 30.04 0525 0540 0534 N16W88L111 M1.4 1.0E-02 12994 30.04 0948 0958 1005 N16W88L111 M4.8 2.5E-02 12994 II/1,2|545,321 30.04 1337 1347 1352 N16W88L111 X1.1 4.7E-02 12994 II/2|1071 CME 30.04 1942 1947 1954 N16W88l111 M1.9 8.0E-03 12994 II/2|2683 CME DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 25.04 0733 0749 NW B9.A CME/0700 26.04 >0051 >1317 N13W26L 77? 12995 26.04 1400 N25W11L >10 12996 CME/1448 01.05 0651 0726 0.53 B.9A ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH - N10L103 S28L125 S43L125 S1OL096 4.6% 29.04 2 MMS SDO HINOTORI * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 27.04/2120 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANE- TARY MAGNETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN BE EXPECT 11.05. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- APRIL 25 26 27 28 29 30 01 MAY Wus 094 126 095 118 090 050 050 F10.7 157 150 142 132 120 120 120 èbcg ÷8.0 ÷9.4 ÷8.0 ÷7.0 ÷6.5 ó1.8 ó1.8 GOES Sp 1320 1170 910 800 450 390 390 msh N 1 2 1 1 IMF + + +/- - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 1.2å+7 1.4E+7 1.1E+7 7.2E+6 7.8å+7 7.8E+7 2.6E+7 GOES Ie>2 1646 2218 2029 1365 345 2955 1061 pfu Ap 5 3 21 14 15 15 18 nô Dst -33 -34 -25 -34 nô KIOTO Amsc 5 4 15 15 12 11 12 IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN 29/1655 UT AND OBSERVED 28.04-01.05. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED 2-9.05. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE AT UNSETTLED AND LOW LE- VELS. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov