25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MINIMUM THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON APRIL 2022 HAS MADE Wmar. =50.4 84.0(in new system) THAT GIVES FOR 22 MONTH (2021, OCTOBER) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*Ïct. = 27.0 45.0 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ W*sep. = 24.0 40.0 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n) MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n) THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031; PROVISIONAL DAILY INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMDER FOR APRIL 2022 (73 observatories): 1..128 6.. 74 11.. 11m 16.. 64 21..114 26..132 2..121 7.. 58 12.. 14 17.. 85 22..110 27..132 3..118 8.. 52 13.. 33 18..101 23..128 28..135í 4.. 81 9.. 38 14.. 41 19.. 96 24..127 29..107 5.. 86 10.. 21 15.. 47 20.. 99 25..118 30.. 51 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON APRIL 2022, AND SMOOTHES ON 2021, OCTOBER AND SEPTEMBER F10.7apr. = 130.8 F*10.7oct.= 093.0; F*10.7sep.= 88.9 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON APRIL 2022, AND SMOOTHES ON 2021, OCTOBER Ap apr.= 12 Ap*oct. = xxx --------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MINIMUM Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 02 - 08.05.2022, Forecast on 09 - 16.05.2022 Carrington Rotations 2257 (01,1.05. 2022) Earth out of ecliptic (2.6 - 3.0) deg. (S32 - N28 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS ON MIDLLE AND LOW LEVELS. ES- TIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 42+11/-10 (Wn= 70+91/-17). THERE ARE ON VISIBLE SOLAR DISK UP TO 4 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE WAS THE MIDDLE SIZT AND 1 WAS ON NORTH HEMISPHERE, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYS- TEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=060+40/-30. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 1 FLARES X- RAY WAS CLASS "X", 9 -CLASS "M", 81 - CLASS "C", ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 29 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (2-7.05), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 03.05 1309 1325 1331 S30E88L246 X1.1/ 4.4E-02 13006 03.05 0734 0801 0753 S30E88L246 M1.3 1.1E-02 13006 04.05 0008 0025 0019 S30E87L246 M5.3 2.2E-02 13006 IV/1 04.05 0845 0859 0910 S16W09L323 M5.7/1B 4.0E-02 13004 04.05 1625 1632 1640 S16W11L323 1N/M1.1 1.0E-02 13004 04.05 1940*1948 2003 S16W11L323 M1.5/1N 1.5E-02 13004 04.05 2009*2027 2036 S16W13L323 M1.6/1N 2.1E-02 13004 05.05 1308 1322 1316 S15W24L323 M2.2/SN 9.0E-03 13004 05.05 1402 1414 1410 S30E62L246 M2.7/SF 7.1E-03 13006 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 06.05 >0116 >1257 N37W10L284 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 27.04/2120 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANE- TARY MAGNETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN BE EXPECT 11.05. ------------------------------------------------------------------- APRIL 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 íáê Wus 069 053 064 085 064 066 089 F10.7 112 114 130 120 119 118 119 èbcg ÷5.9 ÷5.8 ÷9.6 ÷8.7 ÷6.9 ÷5.3 B4.8 GOES Sp 240 270 530 720 650 660 740 msh N 2 1 IMF + + +/- - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 6.7å+7 1.0E+8 5.3E+7 5.9E+7 6.1å+7 6.7E+7 2.7E+7 GOES Ie>2 1538 2377 1467 1687 1354 1408 1077 pfu Ap 6 7 6 4 5 3 6 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 5 5 7 5 5 2 7 IZMIRAN ----------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN 29/1220 UT AND OBSERVED 29.04-08.05. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED 9-12.05. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE AT UNSETTLED AND LOW LE- VELS. GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBATIONS ARE ONLY POSSIBLE FROM SPORADIC FLA- RES EVENTS. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov