25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MINIMUM Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 09 - 15.05.2022, Forecast on 16 - 23.05.2022 Carrington Rotations 2257 (01,1.05. 2022) Earth out of ecliptic (3.1 - 3.4) deg. (S32 - N28 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS ON MIDLLE LEVEL. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER- NATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=9+16/-22 (Wn=98+31/-32). THERE ARE ON VISIBLE SOLAR DISK UP TO 7 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE WAS THE MID- DLE SIZE AND 5 PASSED ON NORTH HEMISPHERE, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYS- TEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=080+40/-30. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 1 FLARES X- RAY WAS CLASS "X", 5 - CLASS "M", 69 - CLASS "C", 3 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 42 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (10 - 15.05), HAVE BEEN OB- SERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/оp J/m-2 10.05 1350 1355 1449 S30W04L246 X1.5/1B 3.1E-02 13006 II/3|718 CME 11.05 1624 1649 1707 S24E39L190 1N/M1.6 1.3E-02 13007 11.05 1808*2050 1858 S17W89L323 M2.7/SF 4.2E-02 13004 II/2|1258 CME II/2|1345 CME 11.05 1927 1935 1931 S17W89L323 M2.2/ 1.2E-02 13004 12.05 2004 2027 2019 N14E88L M1.3 9.2E-03 13011 * - two radiodi радиовсплеска типа II в одном вспышечном событиии DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 06.05 >0116 >1257 N37W10L284 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 12.04/1310 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANE- TARY MAGNETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN BE EXPECT 25.05. ------------------------------------------------------------------- APRIL 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 МАЙ Wus 071 062 084 112 120 105 129 F10.7 117 116 133 133 150 153 154 Хbcg В5.8 С1.3 С1.1 С1.0 C1.2 С1.1 С1.0 GOES Sp 450 420 450 580 610 580 720 msh N 2 2 1 1 2 IMF - - - -/+ + + + DSCOVR е>2 1.2Е+6 1.0E+6 1.3E+6 1.0E+6 1.0E+6 1.2E+6 1.2E+6 GOES Ie>2 151 112 146 112 243 167 140 pfu Ap 8 3 6 8 7 7 12 nТ Dst nТ KIOTO Amsc 7 3 7 7 9 6 11 IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED. Pr (>10 MeV) To 11.05/~19; MAX - 12/04-5.45 pfu; Те - 13.05/18 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE AT UNSETTLED AND LOW LEVELS. GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBATIONS ARE ONLY POSSIBLE FROM SPORADIC FLARES EVENTS. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov