25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MINIMUM Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 23 - 29.05.2022, Forecast on 30.05 - 06.05.2022 Carrington Rotations 2257, 2258 (01,1.05.; 28,3.05 2022) Earth out of ecliptic (5.1 - 5.5) deg. (S32 - N28 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM HIGH TO LOW LEVELS. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=51+31/-30 (Wn=085 +52 /-51). THERE ARE ON VISIBLE SOLAR DISK UP TO 9 SUNSPOT GROUPS, 1 WAS THE HIGH, AND 5 PASSED ON SOUTH HEMISPHERE, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIO- NAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=060+50/-30. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. ONE FLARE WERE X-RAY CLASS "M", 49 - CLASS "C", 5 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 40 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (6 - TYPE II) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 25.05 1809 1824 1903 S19W41L076 M1/3/1N 1.8E-02 13016 II/3|1638 IV/ CME/1836 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 24.05 >0028 >1352 S33E63L123 14 24.05 <1024 S40E80L140 ~5 27.05 >0045 >1311 N08E10L 7 13021 28.05 <0637 ~N25W89L110 ~5 C1.3 13014 CME 28.05 <0600 SE ~5 CME ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH - N46L095 N35L125 N18L098 N18L082 2.8% 26.05 2 G1 SDO HINODE CH - N01L095 S30L148 S32L105 S03L093 3.6% 26.05 3 G1 SDO HINODE * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- BEGINING 27.05/1310 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANE- TARY MAGNETIC FIELD. AT PERIOD 25/22 - 27/1310 UT THE SIGN OF SECTOR RE- PEATEDLY CHANGED. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN BE EXPECT 8.06. ------------------------------------------------------------------- MAY 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 íáê Wus 132 137 093 087 069 034 042 F10.7 158 147 137 123 114 102 098 èbcg C1.2 ó1.0 ÷8.8 ÷7.1 ÷6.1 ÷4.0 ÷2.1 GOES Sp 1051 920 870 670 220 180 200 msh N 1 2 IMF + + +/- -/+ +/- - - DSCOVR Å>2 4.7å+7 4.8E+7 1.9E+7 2.4E+7 4.3E+6 1.9E+6 2.0E+7 GOES Ie>2 1051 968 636 775 507 150 888 pfu Ap 5 4 4 4 17 24 15 nô Dst -35 -57 -39 nô KIOTO Amsc 4 6 6 5 21 15 13 IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OBSERVED EXEPT 23.05. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED AFTER 29.05. A RECURRENT MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=35, dur.=21h) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA AND (G1, Ams=33, dur.=15h) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA OBSERVED ON 27 -28.05 DURING THE PASSAGE OF A HIGH -SPEED STREAM (CIR) FROM THE CORONAL HOLES ABOVE. OTHER DAYS GEO- MAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUITE TO UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov