25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON MAY 2022 HAS MADE Wmay =58 96.5(in new system) THAT GIVES FOR 23 MONTH (2021, NOVEMBER) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*nov. = 30.4 50.6 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ W*Ïct. = 27.0 45.0 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n) THE PHASE OF MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 25 - 2020 01 - 2021 10 MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n) THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031; PROVISIONAL DAILY INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMDER FOR MAY 2022 (71 observatories): 1.. 36 6.. 77 11.. 80 16..149 21..151 26.. 81 31.. 69 2.. 31m 7.. 64 12..110 17..146 22..161M 27.. 60 3.. 78 8.. 78 13..124 18..131 23..142 28.. 44 4.. 78 9.. 72 14..133 19..144 24..134 29.. 45 5.. 77 10.. 57 15..145 20..130 25..106 30.. 59 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON MAY 2022, AND SMOOTHES ON 2021, NOVEMBER F10.7may = 133.98 F*10.7nov.= 97.7 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON MAY 2022, AND SMOOTHES ON 2021, NOVEMBER Ap apr.= 7.5 Ap*oct. = xxx --------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 30.05 - 05.06.2022, Forecast on 06 - 13.06.2022 Carrington Rotations 2257, 2258 (01,1.05.; 28,3.05 2022) Earth out of ecliptic (5.6 - 6.0) deg. (S28 - N33 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW LEVEL. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIO- NAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 33+12/-10 (Wn= 054+21/-15). THERE ARE ON VISIBLE SOLAR DISK UP 6 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS, AND 4 PASSED ON SOUTH HEMISPHERE, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED AT LOW LEVEL. WEEKLY AVERAGE VA- LUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=060+50/-30. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. FIVE FLARES WE- RE X-RAY CLASS "C", 34-CLASS "C", SEVEN SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 13 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 30.05 0130 0210 N15W68L041 >5 C1.5 13019 CME/0248 31.05 2351 S11W08L295 6 CME/0224 01.06 >0056 >1250 N24W10L293 13 02.06 <0426 <0616 S33W65L295 34 04.06 0200 >1249 N40E28L318 10 05.06 >0153 >1649 S28W44L296 7 05.06 0946 1303 S27W57L311 18 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- BEGINING 27.05/1310 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLA- NETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN BE EXPECT 8.06. ---------------------------------------------------------------- MAY 30 31 01 02 03 04 05 JUNE Wus 040 039 059 059 052 075 057 F10.7 101 098 104 101 101 101 099 èbcg ÷2.0 ÷1.9 ÷2.3 ÷2.3 ÷1.8 ÷2.0 ÷1.5 GOES Sp 320 270 330 430 430 420 260 msh N 2 2 IMF - - - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 1.7å+8 1.5E+8 2.8E+8 4.0E+8 4.2E+8 5.2E+8 1.9E+8 GOES Ie>2 4565 5303 6865 9247 9724 9519 5732 pfu Ap 9 9 6 5 4 4 3 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 10 10 6 5 4 4 5 nT IZMIRAN ----------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 30.05/0135 UT AND OBSERVED 30.05-05.06. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS EXPECTED 6-7.06. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO QUITE ALL PERIOD. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov