25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 06 - 13.06.2022, Forecast on 13 - 20.06.2022 Carrington Rotations 2258 (28,3.05 2022) Earth out of ecliptic (6.4 - 6.9) deg. (S28 - N35 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW, VERY LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=019+25/-19 (Wn= 032 +29/-32). THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC PASSED UP TO 4 SMALL SUN- SPOT GROUPS, THREE OF WHICH LOCALIZED IN THE N-HEMISPHERE AND COMPO- SED THE COMPLEX OF ACTIVE REGIONS AR13030+32+33. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=060+50/-30. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. 2 FLARE WAS X-RAY CLASS "M", 13 - CLASS "C" AND 22 CLASS "B", 16 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 10.06 1011 1114 >1104 N17E89L114 M1.2/SF 3.4E-02 13030 13.06 0258 0407 0512 N26E53L106 M3.4/ 1.8E-01 13032 II/2|325 IV/1 CME/0312|H DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 11.06 >0110 >1310 N28W44L078 64 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT MIDDLE, LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- BEGINING 11.06/0600 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLA- NETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN BE EXPECT 24.06. ---------------------------------------------------------------- JUNE 06 07 08 08 10 11 12 JUNE Wus 045 023 000 017 033 041 063 F10.7 096 101 100 106 111 112 121 èbcg ÷1.8 ÷2.3 ÷3.0 ÷4.4 ÷5.2 ÷4.9 ÷6.3 GOES Sp 140 030 000 070 170 230 190 msh N 1 1 2 IMF - - - - - -/+ + DSCOVR Å>2 5.7å+6 2.1E+6 1.3E+6 1.6E+6 1.8E+6 1.6E+6 1.5E+6 GOES Ie>2 1060 266 106 206 151 150 127 pfu Ap 10 8 5 5 5 8 9 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 13 7 6 6 5 8 12 IZMIRAN ----------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 30.05/0135 UT AND OBSERVED 30.05-06.06. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO QUITE ALL PERIOD. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov