25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 13 - 19.06.2022, Forecast on 20 - 27.06.2022 Carrington Rotations 2258, 2259 (28.05.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (6.8 - 7.1) deg. (S28 - N35 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT MIDDLE LEVEL. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER- NATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=081+14/-21 (Wn= 135 +24/-39). THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC PASSED UP TO 9 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS, SIX OF WHICH LOCALIZED IN THE N-HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED AT MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=100+50/-30. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. 2 FLARE WAS X-RAY CLASS "M", 58 - CLASS "C", ONE EJECTA OF SOLAR FILAMENT AND 19 CORO- NAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 13.06 0258 0407 0512 N26E53L106 M3.4/1N,1F 1.8E-01 13032 II/2|325 IV/1 CME/0312|H 16.06 0347 0353 0357 S28W14L129 M1.6/ SF 2.6E-03 13031 CME/0348 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 13.06 0747 0943 S31W31L114 13 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH - N05L082 N00E092 S08L072 S05L062 2.7% 23.06 1 G1 SDO GOES CH - N50L092 N40L117 N30L072 N40L067 2.4% 24.06 1 G1 SDO GOES CH - S18L097 S38L117 S40L107 S32L087 1.2% 28.06 1 - SDO GOES * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- BEGINING 11.06/0600 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLA- NETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN BE EXPECT 24.06. ---------------------------------------------------------------- JUNE 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 éàîø Wus 096 121 149 159 152 145 120 F10.7 132 146 140 147 149 140 144 èbcg ÷8.4 ó1.0 ÷7.4 ÷7.5 ÷9.0 ÷7.3 ÷8.6 GOES Sp 480 560 810 730 510 640 800 msh N 2 1 1 1 1 IMF + + + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 2.7å+6 3.1E+6 3.9E+6 9.3E+6 2.7E+7 5.0E+7 1.0E+8 GOES Ie>2 177 274 460 466 646 1413 2950 pfu Ap 13 8 20 12 13 14 12 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 11 7 15 13 15 11 13 IZMIRAN ----------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN 18/1245 UT AND OBSERVED 18-19.06. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS EXPECTED 20.06. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO QUITE ALL PERIOD EX- CEPT FOR A SMALL MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=31, dur. =15 h) on June 15 ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF THE CENTER IN BOULDERà ACCORDING TO THE DA- TA OF IZMIRAN, IT WAS A G0 SUBSTORM DURATION OF 6 h-THE CONSEQUENCE OF THE GLANCING BLOW ARRIVING OF THE INTERPLANETARY SHOCK WAVE FROM THE EJECTION OF A GIANT SOLAR FILAMENT (64 deg) 11.06. NEXT WEEK THE RECURRENT GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED 23-24.06, WHEN THE EARTH WILL PASS HIGH SPEED STREAM FROM SOLAR CORONAL HOLES. POSSIBILITY OF MINOR MAGNETIC STORM ~40%. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov