25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 20 - 27.06.2022, Forecast on 28.06 - 04.07.2022 Carrington Rotations 2259 (24,5.06.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (7.3 - 6.9) deg. (S28 - N35 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=042+25/-23 (Wn= 070+41/-39). THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC PASSED UP TO 6 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE BIG, THREE OF WHICH LOCALIZED ON THE NORTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED FROM VERY LOW TO MIDDLE LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=50+50/-30. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. 44 FLARE WAS X-RAY CLASS "C", 24 - CLASS "B", ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 28 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, ONE WAS TYPE III (angular width 180 - 270 deg.), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 26.06 1018 1038 N23W51L 15 CME/1112 III ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS, MIDDLE- CLASS FLARES EVENTS ARE UNLIKELY. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH - S18L097 S38L117 S40L107 S32L087 1.2% 28.06 1 - SDO GOES * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- BEGINING 21.06/14 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLA- NETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN BE EX- PECT 8.07. ---------------------------------------------------------------- JUNE 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 JUNE Wus 112 104 080 069 060 031 033 F10.7 137 139 129 121 115 108 102 èbcg ó1.0 ÷7.7 ÷7.8 ÷5.8 ÷4.4 ÷3.6 ÷3.3 GOES Sp 800 880 770 710 830 630 340 msh N 1 IMF + +/- - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 1.1å+8 8.5E+7 2.8E+7 3.3E+7 3.6E+7 5.0E+7 2.5E+7 GOES Ie>2 2970 2257 1178 1176 980 1413 1149 pfu Ap 10 8 11 10 8 14 23 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 12 8 10 9 6 11 19 IZMIRAN ----------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN 18/1245 UT AND OBSERVED 18-23.06. NEXT SIMILAR FLUX BEGUN 25/1410 UT AND OBSERVED 25-26.06. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS EXPECTED 27.06-04.07. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO QUITE ALL PERIOD EX- CEPT A SUBSTORM (G1, dur. 9 h) on June 25 - 26.09 AND MINOR MAGNETIC STORM 26-27.09 (G0, Ams=26, ÄÌÉÔ.=21 h) ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF THE CENTER IN BOULDER, ACCORDING TO THE IZMIRAN DATA, IT WERE THREE G0 SUBSTORM (dur. by 6 h)- THE CONSEQUENCE THE EARTH PASSING THE HIGH SPEED STREAM FROM TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE. NEXT WEEK THE RECURRENT GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED 28.06, DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A HIGH SPEED STREAM FROM NEGATIVE POLARITY SOUTH CORONAL HOLE. POSSIBILITY OF MINOR MAGNETIC STORM ~20%. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov