25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, 
             THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE      

       Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                   Highlights on 04 - 10.07.2022,
                     Forecast on 11 - 18.07.2022 
               Carrington Rotations 2259 (24,5.06.2022) 
                Earth out of ecliptic (-6.3 - -6.0) deg. 
                (S28 - N35 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY  WAS AT MIDDLE LEVEL. ESTI-
MATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 054+14/-7 (Wn = 
090+23/-11).  THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC PASSED UP TO SEVEN SUNSPOT 
GROUPS, 2 OF THEM WAS A BIG SIZE  AND 3 LOCALIZED  ON THE SOUTH  
HEMISPHERE. 

 NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEK-
LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA-
TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=80+60/-40.

 FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MIDDLE, LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS.  TWO 
FLARE WAS X-RAY CLASS "M", 55- CLASS "C", 21- CLASS "B", 2 SOLAR
FILAMENT EJECTIONS  AND FORTY CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS,  HAVE BEEN 
OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
       to   tm    te localization  Class  E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV  CME
                                 X-ray/Ïp  J/m-2           
08.07  2007 2128 2049 N20E40L136  M2.5	  7.9E-02 13053 CME/2048/1041
10.07  2240 2343 0115 S18E67L076  M1.3	          13056
DSF (EPL) to    te  localization  l deg.  Fl    AR     CME/to
10.07    1706  1827  S18E90L050    0.22   C2.6 13056
10.07    1733  1750  S18E90L050    0.19   C4.2 13056    
-------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS, MIDDLE-
CLASS FLARES EVENTS ARE UNLIKELY.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign N end   E end   S end   W end   Sch   EE   R  G  Spacecraft 
CH +  N30L235 N20L270 N10L260 N25L225 5.9% 5-6.07 1 -  SDO HINOTORY
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
----------------------------------------------------------------------

FROM 8.07/14 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELDS. 6 - 8.07 SECTOR BORDER CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. NEXT SECTOR
BORDER "+/-" IT CAN EXPECTED 18.07.

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JUNE      04     05     06     07     08     09     10  éàìø
Wus      079    002    098    080    081    089    113
F10.7    104    115    115    121    130    137    153
èbcg    B3.3   ÷5.9   ÷4.8   ÷4.8   ÷5.2   ÷8.2   ÷9.9  GOES
Sp       180    331    590   1000   1000   1260   1220  msh   
N         2      2      1      1                    1
IMF       -      -      -      -     -/+     +      +   DSCOVR   
Å>2   1.3å+6 2.4E+6 2.1E+6 1.5E+6 1.4E+6 1.6E+6 1.5E+6  GOES
Ie>2     135    335    176    188    149    158    153  pfu
Ap        21     3      5      20     7      6      7   nô  
Dst                    +8     -82    -71    -17         nô KIOTO
Amsc      19     5      5      17     16     7      7   nô IZMIRAN 
------------------------------------------------------------------  
Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

  THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT 
OBSERVED.
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS NOT EXPECTED.

 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION  CHANGED FROM QUITE TO ACTIVE  AND 7-8.07 
REACHED THE LEVEL OF A MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=41, dur=18 h), 
BUT ONLY  ACCORDING  TO THE DATA OF THE BOLDER CENTER DATA.  ACCORDING 
TO IZMIRAN DATA, THIS DISTURBATION BREAKED INTO 2 SUBSTORMS, 3-hour G1 
AND 6 hour G0. THE SOURCE OF THIS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE BECOMES THE 
ARRIVAL TO THE EARTH OF A CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM THE 2.07 SOLAR FI-
LAMENT EJECTION  AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREEAM  FROM THE 
CORONAL HOLE OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE.

 NO RECURRENT GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBATION ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AND SPO-
SPODIC DISTURBATION ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE VERY PROBABLE OF FLARE AC-
TIVITY IN A SUNSPOT GROUPS WITH A COMPLEX MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov