25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 11 - 17.07.2022, Forecast on 18 - 25.07.2022 Carrington Rotations 2259, 2260 (24,5.06;21,7.07.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (-5.9 - -5.5) deg. (S28 - N35 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT MIDDLE LEVEL. ESTI- MATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=081+19/-20 (Wn= 135+36/-34). THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC PASSED UP TO SEVEN SUNSPOT GROUPS, 1 OF THEM WAS A BIG SIZE AND 3 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=90+60/-40. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MIDDLE, LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. FIVE FLARE WAS X-RAY CLASS "M", 95-CLASS "C", 3 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTI- ONS AND 40 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 11.07 0908 0939 0919 S17E62L076 M1.1/1F .014 13056 14.07 0422 0440 0431 N15E81L017 M1.2 .008 13058 14.07 2142 2153 2148 N15E69L017 M2.8 13058 16.07 0616 0634 0651 N18E19L059 M1.1/1N .007 13057 16.07 1533 1544 1539 S16W54L121 M1.4/1B .005 13055 CME/1724 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 15.07 1256 1416 N21W25L038 16 15.07 1306 1406 N36E04L067 24 16.07 1303 1703 S30W57L115 24 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. X-CLASS FLARES EVENTS ARE UNLIKELY. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH - N38L094 N30L104 N18L082 N25L069 3.0% 21.07 2 G1 SDO HINOTORY CH - N12L074 S05L104 S40L114 N05L069 5.0% 21.07 2 G1 SDO HINOTORY * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 8.07/14 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. 6 - 8.07 SECTOR BORDER CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. NEXT SECTOR BORDER "+/-" IT CAN EXPECTED 18.07. ---------------------------------------------------------------- JULY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 JULY Wus 134 117 101 133 141 153 166 F10.7 161 165 165 169 171 176 166 èbcg C1.0 C1.0 ÷9.8 C1.4 C1.1 C1.3 C1.0 GOES Sp 1820 1580 1520 1810 2110 1510 1660 msh N 1 1 1 1 1 IMF + + + + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 2.1å+6 2.1E+6 4.3E+6 6.7E+6 1.1E+7 1.4E+8 2.6E+8 GOES Ie>2 240 320 210 186 330 3341 5273 pfu Ap 12 18 5 5 8 6 5 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 12 18 6 4 8 5 4 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 16.07/1050 UT AND OBSERVED 17.07. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS EXPECTED 18-25.07. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUITE TO ACTIVE (12.07) - SUB- STORM G1, dur 6 h. DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF "+" POLARITY CORONAL HOLE's HIGH SPEED STREAM. NEXT WEEK A RECURRENT GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE ON 22-23.09, WHEN THE EARTH WILL PASS A HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM GEOEFFICIENT (BY PARAMETERS) CORONAL HOLES LOCATED SYMMETRICLY RELATIVE TO THE EQUATOR. PROBABILITY OF A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM IS NOT LESS THAN 60%. SPORADIC DISTURBANCES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO QUITE PROBABLE SIGNIFICANT FLARE ACTI- VITY OF SUNSPOT GROUPS WITH A COMPLEX MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov