25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 18 - 24.07.2022, Forecast on 25 - 31.07.2022 Carrington Rotations 2259, 2260 (24,5.06;21,7.07.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (-5.4 - -5.1) deg. (S28 - N35 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED AT MIDDLE LEVEL. ES- TIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W = 066+10/-18 (Wn= 111+18/-31). THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC PASSED UP TO 8 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE OF THEM WAS A AVERAGE SIZE AND THREE LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER- NATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=60+40/-40. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVELS. 47 FLARE WAS X-RAY CLASS "C" AND 24 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS ONE OF WICH WAS ON TYPE II (THE ANGULAR WIDTH 90-180 deg.), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 21.07 ~0102 0133 N15W1lL353 10 23.07 1840 S13W33L306 10 C5.6 13060 II/2 IV/1 0136 24.07 1141 1206 S39E63L025 7 24.07 >1831 >1852 S28E21L301 18 13062 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. X-CLASS FLARES EVENTS ARE UNLIKELY. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH - N38L094 N30L104 N18L082 N25L069 3.0% 21.07 2 G1 SDO HINOTORY CH - N12L074 S05L104 S40L114 N05L069 5.0% 21.07 2 G1 SDO HINOTORY * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 19.07/0125 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BORDER "+/-" IT CAN EXPECTED 5.08. ---------------------------------------------------------------- JULY 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 JULY Wus 125 114 129 124 107 096 080 F10.7 152 144 133 122 114 111 107 èbcg ÷9.7 ÷9.6 ÷8.3 ÷6.2 ÷5.3 ÷4.3 ÷3.1 GOES Sp 740 570 560 530 430 360 240 msh N 1 2 1 IMF - - +/- - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 8.0å+7 7.5E+6 7.6E+7 3.5E+7 2.7E+7 1.6E+7 2.6E+7 GOES Ie>2 3785 305 1915 1333 851 702 926 pfu Ap 8 26 7 21 11 17 9 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 11 27 7 20 12 14 10 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 16.07/1050 UT AND OBSERVED 17-19.07. NEXT FLUX BEGUN AT 20.07/0935 AND OBSERVED 20-21.07. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUITE TO MINOR MAGNETIC STORM LEVEL ON 19.07 (G1, Ap= 30, dur.=21 h) ACCORDING CENTER OF BOULDER DA- TA, BUT ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA THAT DISTURBANCE WAS SUBSTORM G0, dur. 9 h. On 21 AND 23.09 ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF BOULDER (G1) AND IZMIRAN SUBSTORMS (G1, G0: dur. from 9 h. to 3 h.) ACCORDINGLY WERE OBSERVED. 23.07/0259 UT THE ARRIVAL OF AN INTERPLANETARY SHOCK WAVE TO THE EARTH IS MARKED AS A SUDDEN IMPULSE OF THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD. THESE DISTUR- BATIONS ARE CAUSED BY FLASH ACTIVITY (THROUGH CME). NEXT WEEK, GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBATIONS (SPORADIC) WILL BE ASSOCIATED ONLY WITH CONTINUED SMALL BUT GEOEFFICIENT FLARE ACTIVITY. PROBABI- LITY OF MINOR MAGNETIC STORMS LESS THAN 3%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov