25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JULY 2022 HAS MADE Wjuly =55 90.4(in new system) THAT GIVES FOR 25 MONTH (2022, JANUARY) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*jan. = 36 60.1 - in new system W*dec. = 33.4 55.7 - in new system On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n) THE PHASE OF MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 25 - 2020 01 - 2021 10 MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n) THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031; PROVISIONAL DAILY INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMDER FOR JULY 2022 (67 observatories): 1.. 58 6.. 82 11..125 16..152M 21..109 26.. 91 31.. 34m 2.. 64 7.. 95 12..114 17..140 22.. 99 27.. 58 3.. 55 8.. 87 13..117 18..126 23.. 97 28.. 42 4.. 59 9.. 93 14..123 19..110 24.. 79 29.. 43 5.. 78 10..106 15..134 20..133 25.. 86 30.. 43 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON JULY 2022, AND SMOOTHES ON 2022, JANUARY F10.7july = XXX F*10.7jan.= XXX THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON JULY 2022, AND SMOOTHES ON 2021, JANUARY Ap july= XXX Ap*jan. = xxx --------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 25 - 31.07.2022, Forecast on 01 - 08.08.2022 Carrington Rotations 2260 (21,7.07.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (-5.4 - -5.1) deg. (S28 - N35 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM MIDDLE TO LOW LEVELS. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 031+29/-15 (Wn= 053+47/-26). THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC PASSED UP FROM 9 NONACTIVE SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS, THREE LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=60+30/-40. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVELS. 5 FLARE WAS X-RAY CLASS "C", 63-óLASS "B", TWO SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS AND 38 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, ONE OF WICH WAS ON TYPE II AND ONE - TYPE III, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 25.07 >0046 >1338 S24W42L309 70 13065 27.07 >0042 >1304 N16W65L 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH - S12L265 S15L66 S40L233 S28L221 3.6% 2.08 1 - SDO HINOTORY * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE - the date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's en- vironment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. --------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 19.07/0125 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BORDER "+/-" IT CAN EXPECTED 5.08. ---------------------------------------------------------------- JULY 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 JULY Wus 100 078 052 050 040 027 038 F10.7 102 099 098 093 093 091 094 èbcg ÷2.1 ÷1.8 ÷1.6 ÷1.4 ÷1.2 ÷1.1 ÷1.2 GOES Sp 280 290 210 130 180 170 180 msh N 1 1 1 IMF - - +/- - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 5.1å+7 4.1E+7 3.0E+7 2.3E+7 2.1E+7 2.6E+7 8.8E+6 GOES Ie>2 1247 1229 1277 1004 759 1067 1374 pfu Ap 6 8 9 7 4 7 11 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 6 8 12 6 5 8 13 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 25.07/1525 UT AND OBSERVED 25-31.07. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT MAY EXPECTED AFTER 4.08. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUITE TO UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK RECURRENT GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBATIONS CAN BE 2-3.08, WHEN THE EARTH WILL PASSED THE HIGH SPEED STEAM FROM CORONAL HOLE "-" POLARITY OF SOUTH HEMISPERE. PROBABILITY OF MINOR MAGNETIC STORMS ~60%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov