25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JULY 2022 HAS MADE W jul. = 55 90.4(in new system) THAT GIVES FOR 25 MONTH (2022, JANUARY) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*jan.= 36 60.1 - in new system W*dec.= 33.4 55.7 - in new system On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n) THE PHASE OF MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 25 - 2020 01 - 2021 10 MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n) THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031; PROVISIONAL DAILY INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMDER FOR JULY 2022 (67 observatories): 1.. 58 6.. 82 11..125 16..152M 21..109 26.. 91 31.. 34m 2.. 64 7.. 95 12..114 17..140 22.. 99 27.. 58 3.. 55 8.. 87 13..117 18..126 23.. 97 28.. 42 4.. 59 9.. 93 14..123 19..110 24.. 79 29.. 43 5.. 78 10..106 15..134 20..133 25.. 86 30.. 43 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON JULY 2022, AND SMOOTHES ON 2022, JANUARY F10.7july = 125.5 F*10.7jan.= 105 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON JULY 2022, AND SMOOTHES ON 2021, JANUARY Ap july = 9.6 Ap*jan. = xxx --------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 01 - 07.08.2022 Forecast on 08 - 15.07.2022 Carrington Rotations 2260 (21,7.07.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (-5.0 - -4.6) deg. (S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM LOW TO VERY LOW LEVELS. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 032+20/ -13 (Wn=54+33/-23). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED TO 7 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS, FIVE LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER- NATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=080+40/-40. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. 10 X-RAY FLARES WERE CLASS "C", 59- CLASS "B", TWO EJECTA OF SOLAR FILAMENT AND 28 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 06.08 0037 S50E42L192 >15 CME 07.08 1749 >1749 N00E25L161 ~30 óíå ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH + N15L145 N02L138 S10L127 S00L125 3.0% 7-8.08 2 G1 SDO HINOTORY CH + N10L141 S02L149 S18L147 N08L131 1.4% 10-11.08 2 G1 SDO HINOTORY * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 6.08/2235 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BORDER "+/-" IT CAN EXPECTED 16.08. ---------------------------------------------------------------- AUGUST 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 AUGUST Wus 032 031 037 052 069 069 087 F10.7 095 098 100 109 111 116 116 èbcg ÷2.0 ÷2.8 ÷2.4 ÷3.5 ÷4.0 ÷4.5 ÷4.5 GOES Sp 120 280 300 300 510 500 510 msh N 1 1 1 2 2 IMF - - - - - -/+ + DSCOVR Å>2 3.5å+6 6.5E+6 4.3E+6 5.6E+6 1.7E+6 1.7E+6 2.4E+6 GOES Ie>2 128 390 348 297 199 146 193 pfu Ap 8 9 8 6 6 4 24 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 8 10 8 8 5 3 21 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 25.07/0125 UT AND OBSERVED 25-31.07. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED UNTIL THE AFTER HALF AT 7.09, WHEN A LONG-TERM (>27 h) MAGNETIC STORM (G2) WAS REGISTERED ON THE EARTH'S SPACE ENVIRONMENT, WHICH CONTINUES FOR THE TIME OF COMPILING THE REVIEW. THIS DISTURBATION IS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE EARTH'S PASSAGE OF A HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM THE TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE "+" POLARITY. NEXT WEEK A GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE CHANGING FROM THE DISTUR- BED 8, 10 - 11.08, WHEN THE EARTH WILL PASS HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM CONSECUTIVE TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLES "+" POLARITY. PROBABILITY OF A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM ON 10-11.09 IS ABOUT 20%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov