25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 15 - 21.08.2022 Forecast on 05 - 21.08.2022 Carrington Rotations 2260, 2261 (21,7.07; 17,9.08.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (-4.2 - -3.9) deg. (S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM LOW TO MIDDLE LEVELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W = 048+23/-14 (Wn =080+39/-24). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED TO 8 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS, THREE LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMI- SPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE LOW, VERY LOW AND, PROBABILITY, MIDDLE LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELA- TIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=080+40/-50. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. 14 X-RAY FLARES WERE CLASS "M" (TWO - LARGE, 79 - CLASS "C", 52 -CLASS "B", AND 47 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 15.08 1314 1436 1442 S22E00L033 1N/M1.0 4.5E-03 13078 15.08 1640 1654 1654 S22W00L033 M2.7/1N 9.5E-03 13078 15.08 1723 1735 1809 S11W46L078 1F/M9.0 5.4E-03 13079 15.08 2147 2158 2153 S22W03L033 M1.1/ 13078 16.08 0752 0805 0758 S22W11L033 M5.0/ 2.2E-02 13078 16.08 2110 2128 2121 S22W15L033 M1.8 13078 17.08 1323 1350 1345 S21W25L033 M2.0/1N 13078 17.08 1428 1510 1452 S26W25L033 M1.0 1.8E-02 13078 18.08 1000 1009 1013 M1.3 3.7E-03 13078 18.08 1037 1113 1055 S27W37L033 M1.5 13078 19.08 0414 0518 0444 S27W48L033 M1.6 3.6E-02 13078 II/2|694 IV/1 CME 19.08 1000 1009 1013 M1.3 3.7E-03 13078 19.08 1037 1055 1113 M1.5 2.4E-02 13078 19.08 1401 1413 1418 S25W37L033 M1.3/1N 5.3E-03 13078 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW, VERY LOW AND, MAY BE, MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH - N42L110 N40L122 S10L130 N20L057 5.8% 17-19.08 2 G1 SDO HINOTORY * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 16.08/1145 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BORDER "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 2.09. ---------------------------------------------------------------- AUGUST 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 á÷çõóô Wus 092 119 083 083 074 056 56 F10.7 131 129 123 117 105 102 097 èbcg ÷6.8 ÷5.8 ÷6.2 ÷7.0 ÷3.2 ÷2.5 ÷1.9 GOES Sp 740 560 530 410 390 140 160 msh N 2 1 1 IMF + ± - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 2.8å+8 2.6E+8 1.2E+8 4.5E+6 2.1E+8 2.5E+8 1.2E+8 GOES Ie>2 7575 4862 6038 595 3335 6242 3058 pfu Ap 6 5 31 16 7 10 7 nô Dst -53 -49 -34 -35 -34 nô KIOTO Amsc 6 4 27 20 5 11 7 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 8.08/1645 UT AND OBSERVED 8-17.07. NEXT FLUX BEGUN 19. 08 AND OBSERVED 19-21.08. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED 22-27.08. A VERY INTENSE (G2) 9-hour SUBSTORM WAS SIGNED AT THE END OF THE DAY ON 17.08 ACCORDING TO BOTH THE DATA AND THE CENTER IN BOLDER AND IZMIRAN. IN THE SECOND HALF OF 18.08, A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams =40, dur. =12 h) STARTED, ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF BOTH STATIONS, AND AFTER 15 h WAS FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams=32, dur.=12 h) AGAIN ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF BOTH STATIONS. 20 AND 21.08 MARKED 3 - 6 h SUBSTORM. THESE GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBATIONS ARE CAUSED BY THE EARTH'S PASSAGE OF A HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE "-" POLARITY AND THE ARRIVAL OF SEVERAL CME FROM MIDDDLE CLASS FLARES ON 15 -17.08. ON THE OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDION WAS UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED THE QUITE AND UN- SETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov