25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 22 - 28.08.2022 Forecast on 29 - 04.09.2022 Carrington Rotations 2261 (21,7.07; 17,9.08.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (-3.8 - -3.5) deg. (S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM LOW TO MIDDLE LE- VELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 050+06 /-24 (Wn=083+11/-39). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED TO 6 SUN- SPOT GROUPS, ONE OF THEM WAS MIDDLE AND THREE LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER- NATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=080+40/-50. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 11 X-RAY FLARES WERE CLASS "M" (three - LARGE), 44 - CLASS "C", AND 20 CO- RONAL MASS EJECTIONS (two were type II), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 25.08 2309 2319 2321 S23W45L033 M1.0/1N 4.5E-03 13078 26.08 1041 1055 1105 S22E51L198 M2.1/1N 9.5E-03 13098 26.08 1208 1214 1221 S22E51L198 M7.2/1B 5.4E-03 13098 26.08 1224 1231 2138 S22W50L198 M5.3/ 4.0E-02 13098 27.08 0152 0240 0305 S19W58L301 M4.8/SF 1.3E-01 13088 II IV CME 27.08 1129 1138 1145 S28W66L301 M1.2/SN 6.1E-03 13088 27.08 1513 1525 1530 S28W71L301 M1.1/SF 7.6E-03 13088 27.08 1545 1358 1621 S22E48L301 M1.8 2.7E-02 13098 28.08 0047 0134 0138 S27W86L301 M1.4 2.8E-02 13088 28.08 1548 1619 1646 S28W80L301 M6.7/SF 1.4E-01 13088 28.08 1820 1832 1850 S28W82L301 M4.6/ 6.3E-02 13088 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 16.08/1145 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BORDER "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 2.09. ---------------------------------------------------------------- AUGUST 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 AUGUST Wus 044 052 046 094 088 084 079 F10.7 103 101 108 118 119 128 252 èbcg ÷3.3 ÷2.0 ÷2.2 ÷3.0 ó1.6 ó1.7 c2.5 GOES Sp 280 380 400 840 830 1120 660 msh N 2 3 IMF - - - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 1.7å+8 2.6E+8 1.2E+8 1.8E+8 1.8E+8 2.4E+7 1.5E+6 GOES Ie>2 3820 4363 6038 2806 3604 2178 138 pfu Ap 7 4 3 5 5 14 7 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 6 4 3 2 - - - nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F> 1000 pfu. Pr(>10 MeV) To-27.08/0530UT; max: /1220UT - 27pfu; Te: /24 UT; THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 19.08 AND OBSERVED 19-27.08. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUITE. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED THE QUITE AND UN- SETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V.Ishkov